Table of contents
Overview and summary of rating and target price changes 3
Updating our price/volume assumptions for 2013 5
Raising estimates, but still below Consensus 5
Balance sheet improvement on track 10
Accelerating land price recovery to drive buyer price expectations 13
Narrowing target price NAV discounts among offshore coverage 17
Restacking onshore coverage preferences; Vanke A to CL-Buy 18
Vanke A (000002.SZ): De-rating unjustified; add to CL 23
BCD (600376.SS): Retain CL-Buy on upbeat sales 25
CMP (000024.SZ): Strong roots to drive earnings; upgrade to Buy 27
SMC (600823.SS): De-rating continuing on weaker outlook; to Sell 29
OCT (000069.SZ): High-end exposure concerns priced in; to Neutral 31
Poly A (600048.SS): Growth outlook subdued; down to Neutral 34
Gemdale (600383.SS): Weak growth yet to reverse; down to Neutral 37
WorldUnion (002285.SZ): Fewer benefits from ASP rise; to Neutral 40
KWG (1813.HK): Thriving on tier-1/2 cities’ ASP recovery; up to Buy 43
Appendix: Land banking/developments, geographic exposure 45
The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of November 30, 2012.
The authors would like to thank Olivia Xiao for her contribution to this report.