Current trading recommendations 3
Price actions, volatilities and forecasts 4
Executive Summary 5
2013-2014 Issues and Outlook: The Old Economy Renaissance 7
Oil: Cyclically tight but structurally stable 18
Natural Gas: Beyond the recovery, a more sustainable price range 23
Copper: Resilience to continue, significant upside on pick-up in global industrial production in 2013…but 2014 much
tougher 27
Aluminium: Outlook relatively bearish, risks skewed to downside 31
Zinc: Large stock overhang and Chinese supply profitable but should balance up into 2014 on slower global supply
growth 33
Nickel: Prices well above $17,000/t appear unsustainable 34
Gold: The cycle is set to turn on improving US recovery 35
Agriculture: Nothing solved yet 37
Appendices: Global crude oil supply and demand 40
Disclosure Appendix 42