Table of contents
Executive summary: Invest selectively as LED lighting cycle powers up in 2013E 4
More affordable products, better technology, and government support… 10
…should power up domestic LED lighting demand in 2013 and beyond 11
The LED evolution: A merger of two industries, but supply chain already overheated 12
Despite upstream makers’ improving penetration and efforts to acquire regional peers... 14
...our addressable market analysis shows supply-demand will not balance until 2014/15E 15
Diving deeper into chip localization assumptions: Mid-power segment is the battleground 17
Bifurcating trend in profitability; focus on structural beneficiaries downstream 19
Scenario analysis: Upside risk for our below-consensus assumptions 26
Valuation methodology: P/E vs. EPS growth works better than other methods 29
Kingsun Opto (002638.SZ): Key beneficiary of LED demand uptick in 2013; Buy 31
Hongli Tronic (300219.SZ): Downstream transformation strategy to take time; Sell 35
HC Semitek (300323.SZ): Capacity laggard, still expanding in a down-cycle; Sell 38
Sanan Opto (600703.CH): Waiting for earnings growth to resume in 2014E; Neutral 41
Elec-Tech (002005.CH): Vertical integration looks more uncertain in down-cycle; Neutral 45
Appendix 48
Appendix II: Global MOCVD installation estimates 50
Appendix III: Domestic chip makers’ addressable market analysis 51
Appendix IV: Domestic LED chip pricing trends 52
Disclosure Appendix 53