Table Of Contents
Five points on Indo market ............................................................. 4
1. Market push-back; a view from too high up .................................................................. 4
2. Mean reversal or more to go? ........................................................................................ 4
3. Gov’t bond; record-high offshore position on record yield ............................................ 5
4. Commodity sector, only for those who can wait ........................................................... 6
5. Further performance divergence .................................................................................... 7
Let’s talk stocks .............................................................................. 8
Stock-picking in a subdued environment .......................................................................... 8
Large-caps; BBCA, BMRI, SMGR, GGRM and CPIN .......................................................... 8
Mid-small caps: BBTN, JSMR, RALS, ICBP and SMRA ................................................... 10
Deep value/contrarian: BBNI, UNTR, ADRO .................................................................... 13
Watch-list ......................................................................................................................... 15
Gelora universe ............................................................................. 16
Five points on investment virtuous-cycle ..................................... 17
The evolution .................................................................................................................... 17
Early-phase and across-the-board investment surge ...................................................... 18
Higher propensity to spend .............................................................................................. 19
Conducive demographics ................................................................................................. 20
Five points on rupiah .................................................................... 21
Driven by capital market flow .......................................................................................... 21
Rupiah susceptible to further weakness .......................................................................... 21
Impact on stocks .............................................................................................................. 25
Five points on CAD ....................................................................... 27
A sign of life ...................................................................................................................... 27
A reflection of Indonesia’s investment surge .................................................................. 28
Spot the difference ........................................................................................................... 28
Five points on inflation ................................................................. 30
Waiting for Godot ............................................................................................................. 30
Revisiting “competition” and “retail evolution” ............................................................... 31
Five points on rates ...................................................................... 33
Still conducive to credit .................................................................................................... 33
Corporate loans − king of the jungle ................................................................................ 33
Five points on commodities ......................................................... 35
Minority, not the majority ................................................................................................. 35
Coal and CPO sector outlook ........................................................................................... 36
Counter-balance from the flourishing non-commodity sector ........................................ 36
Five points on regulatory environment ......................................... 39
A shift in mind-set ............................................................................................................ 39
Sectors exposed to regulatory risks ................................................................................. 39
Fuel price hike – multiple implications ............................................................................. 41
An employee’s market: minimum wage hike .................................................................. 44