While headline US gas production continues to grow, signs of declines in parts of
the country are emerging. We single out four areas of production growth, which are
concealing declines elsewhere.
• We estimate that gas production in the Marcellus, Fayetteville, and gas from oil wells
in Texas and North Dakota added 3,150 MMcf/d through September in 2012. Outside
of these four regions, lower-48 dry gas production dropped 2,850 MMcf/d in the first
nine months of 2012, in line with gas-directed drilling trends. Without a meaningful
uptick in gas-directed drilling outside of the Marcellus and Fayetteville, we expect
these declines to accelerate.
• Producers are well hedged for 2013, but at lower prices than last year. While some
uptick in gas-directed drilling is possible in 2013, gains should be limited. We
reiterate our expectation for aggregate US lower-48 production to tip into declines in
the second half of 2013. Revisions to historical production data caused our y/y
production growth estimate to inch slightly higher. We expect 2013 dry gas
production to average 64.95 Bcf/d, up 180 MMcf/d versus 2012.