Resetting base assumptions following
yen movement
Moving earnings assumptions to a ¥87/US$ base
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.
Kurt Sanger, CFA
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6692
kurt.sanger@db.com
Companies Featured
Nissan Motor (7201.T),¥847 Buy
Toyota Motor (7203.T),¥4,165 Buy
Mazda Motor (7261.T),¥177 Hold
Honda Motor (7267.T),¥3,250 Hold
Fuji Heavy Industries (7270.T),¥1,129 Hold
Yamaha Motor (7272.T),¥1,007 Hold
Suzuki Motor (7269.T),¥2,295 Buy
We have reset our earnings assumptions using ¥87/US$ as well as changes in
a basket of other currencies. As one can tell by the share price movements, the
largest revisions are at Mazda and FHI given high sensitivity. From the
perspective of global competitiveness, a move from ¥80 to ¥87 is profit
enhancing, but not game changing for the Japanese. As such we have
assumed only incremental multiple expansion for the sector. We adjusted
earnings and target prices for Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, FHI, Yamaha,
and Suzuki (details pg2-3).
Yen enhances earnings growth potential; adds some flexibility
The yen depreciation has driven share prices up aggressively over the last one
and three months. This has happened as the fundamental view for the industry
is less convincing. We expect some industry growth, but decelerating growth
in N. American could bring with it incentive pressure. Further for some we
expect a hangover from global inventory rebuilding and Japan eco incentives
in FY3/13. The weaker yen will help to keep earnings growing and give some
flexibility on pricing, while improved margins have the potential to help the
sector rerate. We like Nissan given its product and cost story believing recent
sector underperformance is overdone, Suzuki for its volume growth outlook at
2x the pace of the industry, and Toyota for its combined product cadence, cost
reduction, and improved competitiveness from the weaker yen.
Nissan’s volume performance is disappointing but earnings less of a concern
Nissan shares are up 26% over 3mths, but relative performance has lagged. It
simply has not executing as we had expected and we have lowered our core
estimates as such. The challenge is to try to balance the expectation fatigue of
the market versus (and the analyst) with the upside potential. Following some
analyst downgrades and recent underperformance we think the relative upside
remains attractive. As positives, we expect to see help from the yen given it
has the highest EPS sensitivity of the J3, improved headline figures out of the
US from April (+0% in Jan-March due to inflated fleet sales last year) and
better macro sentiment in China couple with sales trend improvement (Dec
+13.8% MoM). We estimate FY3/14 OP ¥750bn and EPS ¥116. FY3/13 OP
should meet COE, while EPS should beat on capital gains.
Largest revisions at Mazda and FHI; Toyota’s savvy PR move
The largest change in FY3/14e was at Mazda (OP ¥40bn to ¥94bn) as not only
the US$, but the C$, A$, and