GBP in 2013: frailties exposed (pg 3)
GBP’s frailties will emerge from the shadows in 2013. GBP’s fiscal credibility is under threat; a
sovereign downgrade looms. The pain of austerity is now kicking in at a time when the MPC appears less
activist. The Bank of England leadership transition in July adds another layer of policy uncertainty.
Crucially, the US has stepped back from the fiscal cliff and the fears of a Eurozone break-up appear to
have diminished. GBP looks set to lose the contest of the uglies.
The best and worst of 2013 (pg 11)
We give our views on our favourite trade recommendations for 2013.
RMB: proof of evolution (pg 17)
The RMB’s recent strong momentum saw the onshore spot rate repeatedly testing the strong side of the
band in November and early December. This rally has been more than a political move in light of the US
election and China’s leadership transition. We still see moderate RMB gains in 2013 but more
importantly one should be prepared for the RMB internationalization to develop rapidly.
Japan election: Economic & FX implications (pg 24)
The opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) swept to a landslide victory in the lower house election,
in December 2012. The LDP's strong showing raises expectations of aggressive fiscal and monetary
expansion in 2013. Whether Japan will actually see a drastic monetary regime change that leads to
sustained yen-weakening, however, depends on the LDP's ability to deliver on its promises.
SEK: Still seksy (pg 28)
The SEK lost ground during August and September due to the Riksbank easing its monetary policy.
Nevertheless, Sweden is in a very strong structural position on government borrowing and its external
position is strong. The currency is not overvalued, and there is little official concern about its level. The
positives for the SEK seem to outweigh the negatives, and we expect the SEK to strengthen in 2013.
Brazil: Lower 2013 growth, weaker BRL policy (pg 34)
We raise our end-2013 USD-BRL forecast to 2.30 from 2.10. We expect the use of the currency to boost
growth, with USD-BRL to trade more as a "crawling peg" than a "free float"
Lowering 2013 gold forecast (pg 38)
We are lowering our average gold price forecasts for 2013 to USD1,760/oz from USD1,850/oz.
GBP in 2013: frailties exposed (pg 3)
GBP’s frailties will emerge from the shadows in 2013. GBP’s fiscal credibility is under threat; a
sovereign downgrade looms. The pain of austerity is now kicking in at a time when the MPC appears less
activist. The Bank of England leadership transition in July adds another layer of policy uncertainty.
Crucially, the US has stepped back from the fiscal cliff and the fears of a Eurozone break-up appear to
have diminished. GBP looks set to lose the contest of the uglies.
The best and worst of 2013 (pg 11)
We give our views on our favourite trade recommendations for 2013.
RMB: proof of evolution (pg 17)
The RMB’s recent strong momentum saw the onshore spot rate repeatedly testing the strong side of the
band in November and early December. This rally has been more than a political move in light of the US
election and China’s leadership transition. We still see moderate RMB gains in 2013 but more
importantly one should be prepared for the RMB internationalization to develop rapidly.
Japan election: Economic & FX implications (pg 24)
The opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) swept to a landslide victory in the lower house election,
in December 2012. The LDP's strong showing raises expectations of aggressive fiscal and monetary
expansion in 2013. Whether Japan will actually see a drastic monetary regime change that leads to
sustained yen-weakening, however, depends on the LDP's ability to deliver on its promises.
SEK: Still seksy (pg 28)
The SEK lost ground during August and September due to the Riksbank easing its monetary policy.
Nevertheless, Sweden is in a very strong structural position on government borrowing and its external
position is strong. The currency is not overvalued, and there is little official concern about its level. The
positives for the SEK seem to outweigh the negatives, and we expect the SEK to strengthen in 2013.
Brazil: Lower 2013 growth, weaker BRL policy (pg 34)
We raise our end-2013 USD-BRL forecast to 2.30 from 2.10. We expect the use of the currency to boost
growth, with USD-BRL to trade more as a "crawling peg" than a "free float"
Lowering 2013 gold forecast (pg 38)
We are lowering our average gold price forecasts for 2013 to USD1,760/oz from USD1,850/oz.
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