Table of Contents
Mining commodities overview – Bullish copper, palladium and metallurgical coal for 2013 3
Copper – Bullish 2013 outlook before move to temporary surplus 6
Long-term copper prices – c.$3/lb or $6,600/t in 2013 dollar terms required to clear the market 9
Aluminium – A structurally bearish outlook 12
Zinc – Tightness still some way off 16
Nickel – RKEF capacity to keep market under significant pressure 17
PGMs – Short-term support for platinum on production cuts but palladium still preferred 18
Gold – Cycle set to turn on improved macro outlook 21
Iron Ore – The last two years of super-normal profits 23
Metallurgical Coal – A gradual recovery to cost support 27
Thermal Coal – Price upside capped by Chinese supply 30
Mineral Sands – A difficult year ahead 34
Rare Earths – Diverging outlook for Light and Heavy REEs 37
Current trading recommendations 40
Price actions, volatilities and forecasts 41
Disclosure Appendix 42