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<p>天相投资，共计39页</p>
<p>目录：</p>
<p>1. 我们的观点................................................................................................................................5<br>1.1 渐进改革和后发优势............................................................................................................................................5<br>1.2 资本市场是金融发展的龙头................................................................................................................................5<br>1.3 私企和居民金融需求升级....................................................................................................................................5<br>1.4 洗牌渐行渐进........................................................................................................................................................5<br>2. 银行业：平稳增长中的洗牌.............................................................................................6<br>2.1 信贷增长稳定........................................................................................................................................................6<br>2.1.1 信贷与工业利润.........................................................................................................................................6<br>2.1.2 信贷与投资.................................................................................................................................................8<br>2.2 盈利能力还有提高空间......................................................................................................................................10<br>2.2.1 贷款利率探底回升...................................................................................................................................10<br>2.2.2 股份制银行的定价活力仍未显现............................................................................................................11<br>2.3 资产质量稳定......................................................................................................................................................12<br>2.3.1 贷款质量整体向好...................................................................................................................................12<br>2.3.2 贷款质量分化之惑...................................................................................................................................12<br>2.3.3 地产周期对银行资产质量影响................................................................................................................13<br>2.4 个人业务竞争激烈..............................................................................................................................................14<br>2.4.1 居民储蓄分流...........................................................................................................................................14<br>2.4.2 房贷业务竞争加剧...................................................................................................................................14<br>2.2.6 外资银行在高端业务上的争夺力度将加大............................................................................................15<br>2.5 上市银行财务摘要和投资要点...........................................................................................................................16<br>2.6 银行估值讨论......................................................................................................................................................18<br>2.7 未上市银行财务指标比较..................................................................................................................................22<br>3. 证券业：龙头公司在行业集中度提高中攫取价值..............................................23<br>5.1 快速成长的业务..................................................................................................................................................23<br>5.1.1 流动性不减、扩容不减............................................................................................................................23<br>5.1.2 交易活跃度高...........................................................................................................................................24<br>5.2 集中度逐步提高..................................................................................................................................................25<br>5.3 投资于新业务的价值..........................................................................................................................................26<br>5.4 龙头券商的业务数据和投资要点.......................................................................................................................29<br>5.5 龙头券商估值讨论..............................................................................................................................................31<br>4. 保险业：居民财富增长和制度变革奠定投资价值..............................................33<br>6.1 快速增长的保险市场..........................................................................................................................................33<br>6.2 资产运用渠道更加广泛......................................................................................................................................36<br>6.3 主要保险公司财务情况......................................................................................................................................37<br></p>
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