Table of contents
Overview: China’s retail revolution has begun, and it’s accelerating 3
The opportunity: Rmb3 tn in online sales by 2015E, 40% CAGR 6
The challenge: How much pain is in store for traditional retailers? 15
What shocks are appliance and consumer electronics stores facing? 18
Scenario analysis: Price war would impact margins 1.5-3.5ppt. 26
We prefer Suning’s online business strategy to Gome’s 30
Comparing discretionary retailers: The GS SUSTAIN framework 32
Valuation: Maintaining SOTP approach: Neutral Suning; Sell Gome 40
Suning (002024.SZ, Neutral): Waiting for online sales to bear fruit 44
When will Suning’s eGou platform become profitable? 46
Gome (0493.HK, Sell): Uncertain earnings outlook, reiterate Sell 47
China appliance and consumer electronics market scale 49
Disclosure Appendix 55
All prices in this report are as of the market close of January 17, 2013, unless mentioned otherwise.
The authors would like to thank Nick Hartley and Lin Tang for their contribution to this report.


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