Executive summary 4
Positive drivers for sector rerating 4
GGR outlook and revisions 7
EBITDA outlook and revisions 7
Our preferred Macau stocks 7
4Q12 results outlook: positive 8
Macau valuation and target prices 9
Macau vs. China valuations 11
Macau vs. China Consumer valuations 12
GGR estimates 13
Returning to stable growth 13
Annual GGR forecasts 15
Monthly GGR forecasts 16
Casino GGR market shares 17
EBITDA estimates 20
Visible operational leverage 20
Quarterly EBITDA estimates 21
Annual and quarterly EBITDA 22
Macau casino resort projects 23
Everyone is building 23
Project size and scope 24
Project profitability and ROA 25
Share prices and estimates 26
Stocks continue to outperform 26
Share price performance 27
Macau vs. global gaming market cap 28
Earnings estimates, changes vs. consensus 29
Smoking and gambling 34
Background to the Macau smoking ban 34
Why Macau is different 34
Global examples of the impact 35
Linking smoking and gambling 35
Why does gambling revenue decline? 35
Why can the revenue decline vary? 36
Impact on venues by market 37
Companies section 43
Galaxy Entertainment 44
Melco Crown Entertainment 46
MGM China 50
Sands China 52
SJM Holdings 54
Wynn Macau 56
Disclosure appendix 60
Disclaimer 63