Table of Contents
Top picks ............................................................................................ 3
Our preferred Buy and Sell recommendations .......................................................................... 3
Rationale and risks to our recommendations ............................................................................ 9
Macro Strategy ................................................................................ 16
Bond performance review .............................................................. 30
Z-Score trends ................................................................................. 36
Latam Quasi-Sovereign Oil & Gas ........................................................................................... 36
Flow of funds: a year in review ...................................................... 41
EM debt amortisations and coupon cash flows ........................... 44
Bargain Hunting Metrics ................................................................. 48
Bargain hunting – a prudent approach update ........................................................................ 48
LatAm ..................................................................................................................................... 49
CEEMEA ................................................................................................................................. 53
Asia ......................................................................................................................................... 58
Global Industry Analysis ................................................................. 60
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 60
Banking ................................................................................................................................... 67
Cement, Construction and Real Estate ................................................................................... 79
Food, Consumer and Agribusiness ......................................................................................... 85
Metals and Mining .................................................................................................................. 91
Oil and Gas .............................................................................................................................. 99
Pulp and Paper ...................................................................................................................... 106
TMT – Technology, Media and Telecom ............................................................................... 110
Transportation ....................................................................................................................... 116
Utilities .................................................................................................................................. 120
Annex 1: Credit Ratings ................................................................ 125
Credit ratings outlook composition ....................................................................................... 125
Credit ratings migration ......................................................................................................... 127
Credit ratings evolution ......................................................................................................... 129
Annex 2: New Issues Monitor ...................................................... 137
GEMs bond issuance to 2012—sovereign & corporate ........................................................ 137
Corporate emerging markets bond issuance to 2012 ........................................................... 138
LatAm bond issuance for 2012 ............................................................................................. 140
CEEMEA bond issuance for 2012 ......................................................................................... 141
Asia bond issuance for 2012 ................................................................................................. 142
Emerging markets monthly new issuance review ................................................................ 143
Annex 3: Current corporate bond recommendations ................. 146


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