+7% yoy visitation achievable; upside from border gate expansion
One of the growth drivers we identify in our Jan 3, 2013 Outlook note (Cyclical
recovery; MPEL to CL-Buy in place of Galaxy) for Macau’s gaming market this
year is a pickup in day-tripper visitations, as facilitated by the completion of the
Guangzhou-Zhuhai Light Transit (GZLT). After trying out the transit yesterday,
we feel more comfortable with our +7% visitation and +23% mass-mkt GGR
forecasts, and see further upside, should the expansion of Gongbei border
gate be completed on schedule in 1H13, which will likely reduce visitors’
queuing time and allow them to spend more time at the casinos, translating to
higher win rates.
More specific, there are 43 high-speed trains from GZ South station each day,
of which 24 go all the way to the Zhuhai station (or 35 on weekends). With
each train able to carry 764 passengers, the transit’s daily capacity is 18,336 (or
26,740 on weekends), representing over 30% of the ~50,000 PRC visitors to
Macau each day (excluding 80,000+ workers/students). As for the border gate,
the 24 counters with capacity for 150,000 visitors appear sufficient to cope with
the 130,000 inbound traffic to Macau on weekdays, but a bit stretched on
weekends. The capacity expansion by 67% to 250,000 should be able to
address the bottleneck issue, especially during the peak hours on weekends.
Pleasant experience; total traveling time reduced by half to 2 hours
We attach photos of our trip for investors to get a sense of our pleasant 2-
hour experience from the GZ train station to the Macau border.
 Train tickets could be purchased online or at counters at affordable
prices (Rmb90 for first class, and Rmb73 for second class). The train
we took was quite fully booked. Departing from the GZ South Station
sharp at 10:05am and having made several stops in between, it arrived
at the Zhuhai Station at 11:15am (a 70-minute train ride). The Gongbei
border gate is only a 5-minute walk from the train station.
 Though it was a Monday morning, there were long queues in front of
the immigration counters. We waited for ~30 mins to pass the Zhuhai
checkpoint and had a short walk to the Macau immigration building
where we waited another 15 mins. Altogether, it took us ~45 mins to
go through customs. Throughout the train stations and checkpoints,
we saw various signages and light-boxes by casinos advertising their
brands without mentioning “gambling”. The trip was generally
pleasant and took 2 hrs (vs. 3-4 hrs before the GZLT opened)