Our base case for 1H13E housing prices is +5% in the large cities, with
upside risks. We discussed in our July 2012 report (click here) that shortterm
housing prices correlate with liquidity. The liquidity that drove housing
prices higher in 2H12 should continue to do so in 1H13E, with tier 1 cities’
housing prices potentially rising much higher. With CPI rising, however,
China’s 2013E monetary policy may not be as loose as in 2012, and potential
policy risks create uncertainties for the housing price trend in 2H13E.
■ But primary transaction volume upside may be limited. Our previous
forecast of a mild volumes decline did not pan out in 2012, although developers’
ASP did decline. In 2013E, we expect primary housing transaction volumes in
the large cities to have very limited growth because the decline in construction
new starts in 2012 should lead to fewer new launches, and the 2012 sales
volumes are already at a high base (average sales volumes were up by 23% in
2012 among developers under our coverage).
■ 2013E contracted sales depends on new supply—upgrade Sino Ocean to
OUTPERFORM. We remain concerned about affordability and other structural
issues, but the strong home-buyers’ sentiment should sustain sales in the near
term. Sino Ocean stands out among developers as having a high contracted
sales potential in 2013, and trading at relatively less demanding valuation. We
also continue to like China Vanke, CR Land, Franshion and Poly Property. By
changing our 1H13E housing price assumption from flat to +5%, we also raise
the NAV of our coverage universe by 24% on average. We have made target
price changes to stocks under our coverage. Refer to page 2 for a summary.


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汇丰银行：2013年澳门博彩行业投资策略（免费）
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