1 论文标题
Modernization of Agriculture and Long-Term Growth
2 作者信息
Dennis Tao Yang and Xiaodong Zhu
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
University of Toronto Department of Economics Working Paper 472 January 18, 2013
4 摘要
This paper develops a two-sector model that illuminates the role played by agricultural
modernization in the transition from stagnation to growth. When agriculture relies on traditional
technology, industrial development reduces the relative price of industrial products,
but has a limited effect on per capita income because most labor has to remain in farming.
Growth is not sustainable until this relative price drops below a certain threshold, thus inducing
farmers to adopt modern technology that employs industry-supplied inputs. Once
agricultural modernization begins, per capita income emerges from stasis and accelerates
toward modern growth. Our calibrated model is largely consistent with the set of historical
data we have compiled on the English economy, accounting well for the growth experience
of England encompassing the Industrial Revolution.

Forthcoming in Journal of Monetary Economics