Table of contents
Overview: Industry growth buffeted by structural headwinds 4
Three key lessons from China’s beer industry 4
Prefer CRE over Tsingtao (H) on a long-term fundamental basis 4
We value Chinese brewers on EV/EBITDA, at a premium to international peers 4
Stock implications: Resume Tsingtao (H) at Neutral, Tsingtao (A) at Buy on valuation; Downgrade CRE to Neutral from Buy 4
Lesson 1: Fragmented market, inferior mix hurting profitability 5
Lesson 2: Consolidation and premiumization 2 key growth drivers 13
Lesson 3: Expansion comes at a cost 18
Prefer CRSB over Tsingtao as CR Snow’s margins come of age 22
Valuation: Premium EV/EBITDA to international peers on higher growth and CROCI 28
Tsingtao (A) (600600.SS, Buy): Valuation arbitrage opportunity 31
Tsingtao (H) (168.HK, Neutral): Growth held captive by market share chase 33
CRE (0291.HK, Neutral): Down to Neutral on escalating beer wars 35
Disclosure Appendix 39