Table of contents
Overview: Marginal improvements, but overhangs loom larger than fundamentals 3
Remain positive on demand uptick, but more policy details needed 8
Tariff expectations fuel share rally, but near-term macro uncertainty remains 11
Post six quarters of negative earnings, M&A activity has begun, but more needed 12
Given availability of low-cost poly supply, a stabilized low price outlook looks likely 14
Sticky midstream consolidation limits margin recovery upside for module makers 15
“Big bath” for earnings in 2013E; we expect net earning breakeven for upstream in 2014E 16
Changes to our 2013-14 key assumptions 18
Applying dual valuation methodologies to off/onshore coverage 19
Jing Gong (002006.SZ): Lack of positive catalysts & looks expensive; to Sell from Neutral 22
GCL-Poly (3800.HK): Still the leader, more certainties needed to justify valuation; Neutral 24
Appendix I: GS global solar demand model 28
Disclosure Appendix 29