<P><FONT size=5>UBS：中国的储蓄 利率 Deposits, Rates and All That</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=5>UBS Investment ResearchAsian Focus</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=5> 27 June 20075页</FONT></P>

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<P>There are three schools of magic.<BR>One: State a tautology, then ring the changes on its corollaries – that’s<BR>philosophy.<BR>Two: Record many facts. Try to find a pattern. Then make a wrong guess at the<BR>next fact – that’s science.<BR>Three: Be aware that you live in a malevolent universe controlled by Murphy’s<BR>Law, sometimes offset by Brewster’s Factor – that’s engineering.<BR>— Robert A. Heinlein<BR>27 June 2007<BR><BR>Do we really care?<BR>Over the past week a couple of pieces of China news have jumped across investors’ radar screens. First,<BR>newly released data show that mainland commercial bank savings deposits fell outright in April and May by<BR>around RMB400 billion, the first sustained two-month decline since the beginning of the decade – raising<BR>fears that money is rushing out of banks in China, potentially destabilizing the financial system.<BR>Second, there is a great deal of discussion in the financial press that China will remove the current 20%<BR>withholding income tax on deposit interest earnings (together, of course</P>