【机构】UBS
【发布日期】20130730
【篇幅】PDF44
【摘要】
􀂄 Optimistic about H213 PV sales based on 12.8% YoY volume growth
Sales of domestically-made passenger vehicles (PV) rose 17% YoY in H113 on
strong SUV sales and inland demand. We believe the market is too bearish on the
recent demand slowdown, as we think inventory and retail prices are under control.
Although growth could slow in H2 mainly due to a high base (Q412 in particular),
sales momentum should continue. We forecast H213/2013 PV sales to rise
12.8%/15.0% YoY.
􀂄 Beneficiaries of consistent inland outperformance
Coastal provinces’ market share declined from 56% in 2012 to 54% in H113. In
the central and western regions, eight provinces have recorded particularly strong
sales growth and a sizable market base. We analyse OEM sales and dealership
exposure to these provinces. We believe Geely Auto and BYD stand to benefit the
most from the demand trend shift; most JVs and Great Wall Motor do not have a
strong presence in the regions.
􀂄 Capacity and new model competition remain concerns
With limited new capacity in H113, we remain concerned about pressure from
incremental capacity expansion on the industry’s competitive dynamic and
profitability. Around 30 models will be launched in H2 and SUVs remain the most
crowded segment.
􀂄 Buy Geely and Brilliance China; Sell Dongfeng Motor and Great Wall
We prefer OEMs with large inland exposure, attractive product line-ups and
limited cost pressures. Geely remains our top pick. We maintain our Buy rating on
Brilliance and expect a strong H1 result. We maintain our Sell on Dongfeng and
Great Wall, and Neutral on Guangzhou Auto due to a rich valuation.