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Morgan Stanley FX Pulse25 July
Data-Driven USD USD correction to extend near-term… The coming week sees the Fed, ECB and BoE all meet – with monetary policy going through a transition phase. News reports suggest the FOMC may strengthen its forward rate guidance, lowering the unemployment target and adding a lower-bound inflation threshold. Such a shift in guidance would prompt the markets to push out Fed rate hike expectations, possibly into 2016, and further heighten market sensitivity to downside data surprises. … providing medium-term buying opportunities. We look to utilise further anticipated setbacks to establish medium-term USD bullish strategies. In particular, we recommend examining any GBP/USD rebounds around next week’s MPC meeting for potential attractive entry levels for renewed bearish strategies ahead of the August 7th Quarterly Inflation Report, alongside which the BoE’s assessment of guidance is due to be published. GBP’s sensitivity to changing rate expectations suggests the introduction of forward rate guidance could initiate the next stage of the anticipated medium-term GBP/USD decline. Peripheral EMU back in focus. EUR/USD upside potential is also expected to remain limited. The renewed ECB dovishness could be reaffirmed at this coming week’s meeting, while political uncertainties at the periphery are likely to come back into focus, adding to the medium-term EUR bearish picture. Once the USD’s corrective phase is complete, we expect EUR/USD to become vulnerable once again. We maintain our 1.26 year-end target. USD/INR uptrend left unaltered by policy steps. We remain highly selective regarding near-term EM exposure and avoid currencies with high external imbalances and high inflation – TRY, BRL, IDR, ZAR and INR. Measures from the RBI and the Indian government have helped INR, but the policy steps will not be enough to alter the medium-term uptrend for USD/INR, in our view. |
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