【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲食品行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：

2009 results so far in line: Seven staples companies we cover have
announced 2009 earnings so far, reporting an average of 46% earnings
growth. This is better than the 34% posted in 1H09 as margins continued
to recover due to lower raw material prices. But the strong results were
no surprise to us. In fact 46% earnings growth was just 1% above our
estimate, and that was driven by one company, CRE, where beverage
margins and earnings surprised on the upside. For almost all of the other
companies, results were in line with estimates at the recurring level.
• Gross margin expansion an important driver: For the companies that
have announced results so far, while average sales growth during 2009
was 16%, earnings growth was 46%. Strong earnings growth was largely
driven by expansion at the gross margin level, most of which (we
estimate 70%) was achieved through a decline in raw material prices and
the remainder via product mix improvement.
• Earnings growth to decelerate in 2010: We expect staples’ earnings
growth to decelerate in 2010. The main reason is raw material prices not
showing further declines. With slightly increasing raw material prices
and a slight ASP increase from staples, we expect almost flat margins.
That leaves us with a 21% earnings growth estimate for staples under our
coverage driven by 23% sales growth in 2010. It is worth highlighting
that 2010 sales growth is inflated due to three companies for which 2009
was an exceptionally low base. If we were to exclude Yurun, Huiyuan,
and Want Want, average sales growth in 2010 would be 17% y/y. Given
a sharp deceleration in earnings growth, we expect P/E contraction for
the sector and maintain our cautious view for most of the staples stocks.
• Rating changes mostly downgrades: We have downgraded Tingyi to
UW from N due to risks to margins, and Yurun to N from OW due to
lower expectations on hog price inflation. Our only upgrade was for
Huiyuan, which we upgraded to OW from UW as we believe a
turnaround story is taking place with record high sales in 2H09 and
recovering margins. Our top picks are Mengniu and Huiyuan. We are
UW on Tsingtao and Tingyi.