研报：Goldman Sachs-China：Automobiles

公司：高盛Goldman Sachs

语言：英文

页数：68页（PPT）

日期：2013年9月28日


目录：

Overview: Identifying local/JV leaders; Geely (onto CL), Changan (A), GAC (H) up to Buy 3

Identifying winning strategies for robust medium-term growth 5

Scorecard system highlights Geely/Great Wall as local winners, Changan/GAC JV winners 9

GS Scorecard Part 1: Geely, Great Wall, and BYD shine in terms of local brand leadership 10

GS Scorecard Part 2: JV exposure favors Changan, GAC 26

GS Scorecard Part 3: Return of capital – Great Wall best placed 31

GS Scorecard Part 4: Balance sheet strength generally strong, excluding BYD 32

Rolling forward valuation; Buy Geely (on CL), Changan (A), and GAC (H) 33

Geely: Up to CL-Buy on product mix/ASP expansion and synergy with Volvo 39

GAC (H): Up to Buy on JV profitability turnaround 42

Changan (A): Up to Buy on stronger-than-expected Ford volume/profitability 45

Sinotruk: Down to Sell on market share loss and sustained fourth quartile ROE 47

SAIC: Off Conviction List, but retain Buy on attractive near-term valuation 50

Dongfeng: Downgrade to Neutral on relatively low growth profile 52

Great Wall (H): Downgrade to Neutral on fair valuation 54

BYD: Upgrade to Neutral on improved visibility of EV growth/policy 56

Appendix: Global autos valuation comparisons 61

Disclosure Appendix 65


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