20131022:感謝大家的支持，當初為了論壇幣所以高價賣出
目前論壇幣已經足夠
考慮已是舊資料，降價回饋論壇

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10/16 新增會瘋全球科技報告(110頁)

不是賽德克巴萊 是 巴克萊
THE ASIA PC+ PULSE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................ 3
Barclays Asia PC+ Pulse – Week of 30 Sep 2013 (Issue No. 71) ......................................................... 3
Highlights of this issue .............................................................................................................................. 3
September NB and DT/MB preview ....................................................................................................... 3
iPhone 5s shipments momentum continues, and larger size iPhone 6 likely in 2014................ 4
Mobile devices start to pull the trigger in 4Q13 .................................................................................. 5
COMPANY SNAPSHOTS ................................................................................ 18
Quanta (Equal Weight; PT: NT$60) ...................................................................................................... 18
Compal (Underweight; PT: NT$15) ...................................................................................................... 19
Wistron (Underweight; PT: NT$21) ..................................................................................................... 20
Pegatron (Overweight; PT: NT$60) ...................................................................................................... 21
Inventec (2356 TT; not rated) ............................................................................................................... 22
Gigabyte (2376 TT; not rated) .............................................................................................................. 23
Elitegroup (2331 TT; not rated) ............................................................................................................ 24
Microstar (2377 TT; not rated) ............................................................................................................. 25
APPENDIX I: NOTEBOOK, DESKTOP, TABLET PCS AND SERVERS ..... 26
APPENDIX II: SMARTPHONES ...................................................................... 51
APPENDIX III: INTEL MICROPROCESSOR ROADMAP ............................ 77
APPENDIX IV: CUSTOMER-SUPPLIER SALES MATRIX (2013E) .......... 78
APPENDIX V: APPLE BUYER/SUPPLIER MATRIX AND TEARDOWN .. 79
APPENDIX VI: TAIWAN SUPPLY CHAIN CONCEPT STOCKS ................ 82
APPENDIX VII: BILLS OF MATERIALS ......................................................... 86
APPENDIX VIII: CHINA MANUFACTURING MAPS ................................... 88
APPENDIX IX: LCD TV BUYER/SUPPLIER AND PANEL SUPPLY CHAIN91
APPENDIX X: ASIA EX-JAPAN TECHNOLOGY CAPEX AND
VALUATIONS, 2009-13E ............................................................................... 93


你俺
Contents
Executive summary .......................................................................... 3
Commoditization conundrum ............................................................ 4
Powerful anti-commoditization forces ..............................................19
Risks and opportunities ...................................................................45
Buy Apple and Samsung...................................................................79
Appendix 1: Commoditization enablers .................................................. 93
Appendix 2: Xiaomi - A Chinese disruptor ............................................... 97
Appendix 3: CLSA smartphone forecast................................................ 106
Appendix 4: China smartphone forecast ............................................... 109
Appendix 5: Smartphone forecast by price tier ...................................... 110
Appendix 6: OEM smartphone data ..................................................... 111
Appendix 7: iPhone subsidy estimates by region ................................... 119
Appendix 8: Major mobile ecosystems’ value-added services offering ....... 121
Appendix 9: Key flagship smartphone models ....................................... 122
All prices quoted herein are as at close of business 16 August 2013, unless otherwise stated

你俺2
Contents
Executive summary .......................................................................... 3
Hyperscale data centres.................................................................... 6
Data and telco 4G capex ..................................................................33
Consumer-hardware woes ...............................................................51
Stock implications ...........................................................................68
Company profiles
Akamai ..................................... 85
Amazon ..................................... 89
Delta ........................................ 95
EMC .......................................... 97
Google .................................... 101
IBM ........................................ 105
Intel ....................................... 111
Microsoft ................................. 115
Oracle ..................................... 121
Quanta .................................... 127
Rackspace ............................... 129
Salesforce.com ......................... 133
Tata Consultancy ...................... 139
PC OEMs ................................. 143


買給你
Cloud computing – it is more real now; decreasing value-add from
hardware-centric companies
We believe three mega trends will fundamentally affect our hardware universe:
The cloud computing paradigm shift: As the workload of consumer devices
pushes into the cloud, client devices become cheaper and more basic.
‘Service- and software-first’ mentality: Google, Amazon, Facebook and
others will continue to put pressure on hardware-centric brand companies as
they only intend to provide hardware in order to build an optimised platform for
their service, not to make money from hardware itself.
Chromebook: For hardware companies, this is another disruptive innovation
that, if executed well, will further drive down NB ASPs, as Google aims to
leverage its success in Android-based smartphones/tablets to NBs.
Three subsector investment implications and stocks for action:
1.Avoid higher consumer exposed brands: Acer (UP), Asustek (UP).
2.Better positioned are ODMs that make inroads into data center/cloud
computing. Further, ODMs can still provide box assembly ODM service with
these service providers. We favour Inventec (OP) and Quanta (OP).
3.Casing component companies are increasing their value-add as the selling
point of consumer devices shift from cost/performance to industrial design and
form factor. We prefer Casetek (OP) and Ju Teng (OP) over Catcher (N).
ODMs: Tapped into cloud computing and data center
ODMs have tapped into server outsourcing orders from PC OEMs (HP, Dell and
Lenovo), while ISPs like Google and Amazon are also increasing direct business
with ODMs as they customise their own data centers at cheaper cost and with
streamlined design. Strong CAPEX growth from major ISPs is accelerating cloud
computing and data center growth. This benefits Inventec and Quanta.
PC sector remains challenging: Be selective
Commercial NBs continue to outpace consumer NBs: We prefer higher
commercial exposure such as Lenovo (OP) and Inventec (OP).
NB brands consolidating outsourcing suppliers: this favours bigger NB ODMs
with scale, while smaller NB plays will find the landscape now more
challenging. Quanta (OP) and Compal (OP) should benefit the most and we
recommend switching out of Wistron (UP) and Pegatron (N).

也蠢
Nomura| Taiwan NB October 11, 2013
2
Contents
3Investment theme
4NB industry – recovery not in sight yet
13Challenges for Taiwan NB ODMs remain
14Asustek Computer
22Compal Electronics
27Wistron Corp
32Acer Inc
37Quanta Computer

42Appendix A-1