<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>Citigropu 花旗：亚太区经济展望 </STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>Asia-Pacific Economics/Strategy 31 July 2007</STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>Asia Economic Outlook and Strategy Capital Inflows and Monetary Policy</STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=黑体 size=6><STRONG>64页 英文 07.31</STRONG></FONT></P>
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<P><FONT size=5>➤ US subprime problems caused the repricing of<BR>corporate credit risk, but generally strong<BR>corporate and financial balance sheets should be<BR>able to weather the storm<BR>➤ Contagion from other credit markets has hit<BR>emerging markets, but is unlikely to undermine<BR>the resilient fundamentals<BR>➤ While Asia suffered from capital flight ten years<BR>ago, today capital inflows are one of the biggest<BR>policy challenges<BR>➤ A combination of rapid liberalization of capital<BR>accounts and rigidity of exchange rates could lead<BR>to major risks<BR>➤ We raise our GDP forecasts for China on strongerthan-<BR>expected momentum, keeping in mind the<BR>risk of overheating and external shocks</FONT></P>