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SURVIVAL MODELS IN ACTUARIAL MATHEMATICS-

FROM HALLEY TO LONGEVITY RISK

Ermanno Pitacco

Dipartimento di Matematica Applicata “B. de Finetti”, University of Trieste

p.le Europa, 1 - I 34127 Trieste (Italy)


Abstract

Several contributions, which can be considered as landmarks in the evolution ofsurvival modelling in actuarial mathematics, are focussed. The following topicsare concerned: the development from age-discrete to age-continuous modelling,

from single-decrement to multiple-decrement models and multistate models, frompopulation homogeneity to population heterogeneity, from static mortality to theanalysis of mortality trends and the consequent need for mortality projections.

Finally, the paper places a special emphasis on some issues concerning actuarialmodelling in a dynamic context. So, the topic of longevity risk is dealt with,aiming in particular to stress its peculiarity in the context of the mortality risks

borne by an insurer (or a pension plan).


Keywords

Early actuarial models, Mortality laws, Multistate models, Heterogeneity, Mortality

trends, Projections, Longevity risk


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