<p><font size="5">高盛高华-GS AMERICAS METALS &amp; MINING BA</font></p><p><font size="5">October 17, 2007 Americas: Metals &amp; Mining: Base Metals<br/>Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1<br/>October 17, 2007&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8页<br/>Americas: Metals &amp; Mining: Base Metals<br/>Copper preview 3Q07: Adjusting estimates, reiterate Attractive view</font></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><br/></p><p>Adjusting 3Q EPS for lower metal prices, strong FX and disruptions<br/>We are adjusting our 3Q07 EPS estimates for base metal miners FCX, PCU,<br/>GMEXICO.MX, and ANTO.L to reflect lower than expected commodity<br/>price realizations and stronger currencies during the quarter. Nevertheless,<br/>we remain bullish on base metal prices going into 2008. PCU earnings had<br/>the largest adjustment due to an estimated 30kt lost in copper production<br/>at its Cananea mine in 3Q07. Copper prices averaged $3.50/lb compared to<br/>our $3.58/lb estimate, while silver and gold prices averaged $12.69 and<br/>$680/oz vs our forecasts of $13.00 and $690/oz, respectively. Our 2007 EPS<br/>estimates declined in a range from 1.4-5.4%.<br/>Copper remains our favorite base metal<br/>Our 2008 and 2009 copper estimates at $4.19 and $3.80/lb, respectively, are<br/>well above consensus at 40% in both years. Since our changes to base<br/>metal prices of September 3rd, consensus copper estimates have been<br/>revised up nearly 10% in 2008 and 18% in 2009. We expect this trend to<br/>continue. We believe that strong demand from BRICS economies in 2008<br/>will test the relatively low level of copper inventories and lagging mine<br/>supply, which continues to be constrained by structural issues (i.e. lack of<br/>skilled labor and equipment) and disruptions (i.e. strikes, accidents). In<br/>addition, while the US remains an important demand component of global</p>