<p><font size="5">高盛高华-GS MORE FOCUSED ON THE OLD </font></p><p><font size="5">Global Economics Weekly<br/>Issue No: 07/35<br/>October 17, 2007&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 12页</font></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><br/></p><p>More Focused on the Old Bubble than a New One<br/>With emerging market equities – most recently<br/>China in particular – in the middle of a large<br/>and sustained bull run, talk is again surfacing<br/>of whether these assets are moving into<br/>‘bubble’ territory.<br/>Comparing the situation to other recent<br/>bubbles, many of the key ingredients that spell<br/>the end of these episodes are missing. Those<br/>ingredients included not only very stretched<br/>valuations, but sharp net inflows of capital to<br/>the affected sector, a significant acceleration in<br/>credit growth or capital-raising in the relevant<br/>areas, and an unusually large rise in actual<br/>spending.<br/>While country stories vary, looking at<br/>emerging markets in general, valuations<br/>appear far less stretched than in other past<br/>bubbles, even in the most extended markets.<br/>What is even clearer is that the real economic<br/>consequences that you would expect to see –<br/>large net capital inflows and widening current<br/>account deficits, sharp increases in credit<br/>growth and a rapid increase in investment –<br/>are not yet broadly visible. In a few places</p>