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| 文件名: cycle-of-success.pdf | |
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The cycle of success: The cyclical nature of active growth investing
http://www.russell.com/documents/institutional-investors/research/cycle-of-success.pdf The article explains the cyclical nature of active growth investing and why now is a difficult time for active managers. Poor behavior in 2008-2012 compared to the primary benchmark(Russell 1000). Similarity between 94-98 and 04-08. 1. "mega cap" stocks domination. Usually they are systematically underweight by managers. Reasons: a. more efficiently priced, less excess return. b. less growth potential Superior return for mega cap sector. a. fight to safety on the second half of 2008 because of European debt crisis b. Outperformance of AAPL This makes it harder for managers to choose stocks(that outperform the benchmark). 2. Non-US investing. Strong US equities performance relative to non-US ones. 3. Strong performance of Consumer Staples Usually mega cap, mature and slow-growing. 4. Worse for managers using earnings momentum earnings momentum vs consistent growth main reason for earnings momemtum managers did not get rewarded: 1. macroeconomic events rather than stock-specific fundamentals. 2. in a volatile market, managers focusing on value outperform managers focusing on short-term positive momentum. 10-15 years horizon indicates efficacy of active managed strategies. More favorable environment for active management is yet to come. Investors continuing active management assignments, rather than converting to passive assignments, are going to be awarded as market conditions change. 终于可以把report扔了！哦耶！ [hide][/hide] |
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