<p>中国货币政策的制定者不该被股市劫持<br/></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="20" month="11" year="2007"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> 11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> 2</font></span></chsdate><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">日</span><font face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">星期二</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> 11:23 BJT<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">以下专栏只代表作者本人观点</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.)<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">撰稿</span><font face="Times New Roman">
</font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">顾蔚</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">路透香港</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">日电</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">---</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">市场普遍预期上周五中国会提高利率</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但央行面对疲软的沪港股市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">意外地按兵不动</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在该出手的时候不出手</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">原因可能是多样的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但担心加息进一步让股市下跌而引发民怨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">估计也是原因之一</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果是这样</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">则意味着市场再一次挟持了中国政策制定者</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">通胀威胁不得不为股市稳定让步</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">显示了中国决策者的政策取向</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">之前投资者估计</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国人民银行将会进行今年第六次加息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">时间可能就在上周五</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">因为中国上周报出消费者物价指数达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年的高点</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.5%,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">而同期一年期存款利率只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3.87%.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">货币供给快速增长也增加了通胀失控的预期</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">为了进一步应对通胀压力</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">温家宝总理上周表达了官方的关注</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">世界银行也建议中国提高利率应对通胀</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但周末过去了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">央行却悄无声息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">摩根大通的中国研究主管龚方雄指出</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,A</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股市场已经从高点跌掉了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20%,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">政府虽然担心股市泡沫</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但不愿意看到市场再度大跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">摩</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">根士丹利的中国经济学家王庆认为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">市场预期升息而央行不升息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">是因为担心提高利率後股市会有反应</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">花旗亚洲经济学家黄益平也持同样的观点</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">央行是货币政策的执行者</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">首要任务应该是控制通胀</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">而不是调控股市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">央行首要目标是维持经济在可持续的范围内最大速度的增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">而非股市平稳增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">对于证券市场</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">政府最应该做的是把规则制定好</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">严格监管</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果中国企业交叉持股的现象没有那麽泛滥</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果中国股市能够尽快扩容</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果股指期货能够早日面世</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国股市不至于到现在这样骑虎难下的境地</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">过度参与</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">长久以来</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国证监会习惯在股市红火的时候停发基金</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">看到股票跌了又开始发新基金</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">试图根据自己对股市的判断</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">来人为地给股市加油和降温</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">现在香港股市也开始唯中国政府马首是瞻</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在香港股市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">月里经历了黑色星期五後</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国给出</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">"</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">港股直通车</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">"</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的消息救市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">刺激港股大涨</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">之後港股泡沫化迹象出现</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国政府迟迟不开通直通车</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">并通过打击限制银行个人存户每日最高提款额的方法</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">来控制</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">"</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">港股地下铁</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">".<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">其实深圳现金超量投放非一日之寒</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">据报道</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2001</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年开始</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">深圳人民币现金净投放量逐年大幅攀升</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">已连续六年位居内地大中城市第一</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">今年前</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">个月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">深圳现金净投放占内地总现金投放近一半</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">正在新加坡访问的温家宝总理表示</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">近日深圳打击地下钱庄活动</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">是担心人民币流通量过大会对内地及香港金融稳定带来影响</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但他不赞成深圳简单地以限制提取现金数额解决问题</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">针对中国股市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">温总理还表示</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,"</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">我</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(2003</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">当总理的时候</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股票跌到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">900</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">点</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">那时候股市也是一片骂声</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">我感到心情非常沉重</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在股市高的时候</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">又出现了一片批评声</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">说要防止资产泡沫</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">."<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国老百姓在股票跌的时候习惯骂政府</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">这和政府在市场里参与过多有关</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">政府希望股市繁荣</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但又担心股市过热</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">而且非常看重短期舆论对政策的反映</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">美国银行的中国经济学家汪涛说得乾脆</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,"</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">政府应该想清楚</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">要想股市健康发展</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">还是要把市场控制在某一个点数</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果是前者</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">那麽下手就要重一些</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">."<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中国政府多年来把股市看成一个长不大的孩子</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">哭闹的时候塞块糖给他</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">安静的时候又要逗他玩</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">原来中国政策制定者只是担心国内股市大起大落</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">现在还要为香港的金融稳定操心</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">一位证监会的官员私下评论说</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">政府早就想要脱手</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但一直就是脱不了手</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前基本是被市场挟持着走</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">事实上不仅仅是中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">美国联邦储备委员会也免不了被市场牵着鼻子走</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">从美联储官员近日的言论来看</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">联储并不想短期内再次减息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但包括华尔街、企业和投资者在内的所有人都在逼联储减息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">因为利率降了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">他们今年的奖金才会有保障</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股票才能升值</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">惯纵投资者</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">不仅加大了所谓的道德风险</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">也增加了政策出错的风险</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">而政策出错对经济发展的打击</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">可能远大于股市大跌</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">完</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span></p>

[此贴子已经被wesker1999于2007-11-22 0:00:04编辑过]