<br/><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';"></span></font></strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman"></font></span></span></font></strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.<span style="FONT: 7pt ';;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';">作者：Yiping Huang，Hong Kong<br/>Hak Bin Chua，Asian Equity Economist</span></font></strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman"></font></span></span></font></strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.<span style="FONT: 7pt ';;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';">资源类别：</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';">报告</span></font></strong><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman"></font></span></span></font></strong></p><strong><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman">3.<span style="FONT: 7pt ';;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';">格式：pdf，725K，96页，英文</span></font></strong></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><strong><font size="4"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'mso-hansi-font-family:';"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: ';;"><span style="mso-list: ignore;"><font face="Times New Roman">➤ The global economy is experiencing significant stress, with intensified<br/>financial strains, housing adjustments and high oil prices. But it also has<br/>important sources of resilience, including robust activities outside the<br/>housing sector in the US and strength in core emerging economies<br/>➤ We forecast only a cyclical slowdown in the coming months, especially in<br/>industrial countries, but we expect central banks to ease policy, including<br/>another 100bp rate cut by the Fed. However, the level of uncertainty around<br/>our base case is unusually high<br/>➤ Asia is likely to continue above-8% growth over the next two years, with<br/>China and India leading the pack. Indonesia and Malaysia may have the<br/>best chance for growth acceleration. Growth performance may also improve<br/>in Taiwan and Thailand after elections<br/>➤ China’s current economic policies are likely to continue under the new<br/>government, and discussions about the economic impact of the Olympics<br/>are often exaggerated. Important transitions, however, could begin soon in<br/>the asset markets, external surpluses and role of investment<br/>➤ The investment share of GDP will probably rise further in China and India.<br/>A gradual investment recovery is also likely to continue in Southeast Asia.<br/>This should support global commodity markets, especially those where<br/>Asian demand dominates<br/>➤ Inflation could be a wild card to our base case outlook, alongside a US<br/>recession. The recent uptick in food prices may be structural. Oil price<br/>distortions could cause fiscal and currency account positions to deteriorate<br/>and hurt currencies. Stagflation, though, still looks highly unlikely<br/>➤ Expected aggressive easing by the Fed would lead to lower short-term rates<br/>in Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines. It might also increase<br/>probability of rate cuts in India and Indonesia. In China, Taiwan and<br/>Vietnam, however, the central banks are more likely to hike rates to fight<br/>inflation<br/>➤ Capital inflows to Asia could increase again. Sluggish US growth and lower<br/>US interest rates could lead to more capital flow to Asia. New regional<br/>initiatives such as sovereign wealth funds and capital account liberalization<br/>might also strengthen intra-regional capital flows<br/>➤ Renminbi appreciation is likely to pick up on growing internal and external<br/>pressure. The rupee and peso could closely chase the renminbi, but the won<br/>and Taiwan dollar are likely to trail behind. The Hong Kong dollar peg<br/>should stay, despite a recent jump in inflation<br/>➤ Rising equity valuations bring a shift from absolutes to relatives. Our equity<br/>strategist, Markus Rosgen, finds no evidence that equity markets re-rate, bar<br/>for short periods. Growth uncertainties, rising volatility and a rolling over<br/>of liquidity should continue to push investors back toward value. Large caps<br/>should benefit most from this. We remain bullish on large cap North Asia.</font></span></span></span></font></strong></p>