<p><br/><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 作者：</strong>Ting Lu ，TJ Bond </p><p><strong>类别：</strong>研究报告</p><p><strong>格式：</strong>pdf，16页，英文，303k</p><p><strong>日期：</strong>2007.11.27</p><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p><p><strong>Lending freeze: Clear signal, small impact<br/></strong>China’s bank regulators have put their brakes on credit growth. The impact on<br/>GDP growth will probably be small, but the signal is clear. China intends to tighten<br/>macro policy enough to modestly slow the economy.<br/><strong>Not just moral suasion or “window guidance”</strong><br/>This time around, we believe it is not just moral suasion and we anticipate a<br/>plunge in newly increased loan in the remainder of 2007. Actually, the<br/>resoluteness and determination shown by the bank regulators in the enforcement<br/>have not been seen since April 2004. However, the so-called “lending freeze” is<br/>not to stop all new lending as banks can still have rooms to extend new loans.<br/><strong>Overall impact on real economy is limited</strong><br/>Although efforts to control lending have greatly intensified, we expect the impact<br/>on GDP growth will be small because: (1) newly increased loans this year have<br/>amounted to RMB3.5tn, big enough to keep the economy rolling; (2) the corporate<br/>sector has raised RMB538bn from the booming stock markets this year; (3) profits<br/>in the corporate sector are at a historical high; and (4) banks have leeway to<br/>increase lending even without inflating their loan balance.<br/><strong>Some sectors will shoulder more burdens<br/></strong>The “lending freeze” started with mortgage loans, so real estate brokers and<br/>agents will be affected first. Special rules in benchmarking bank loans have forced<br/>banks to readjust the composition of their loan portfolios by stopping discounting<br/>receivables, dealing a blow to some sectors. Finally, stricter control on lending<br/>may also throw out the baby with the bath water by denying loans essential for<br/>some sound enterprises.<br/><strong>Investment implications</strong><br/>The macro backdrop for equities is becoming more unclear. From the positive<br/>side, we expect inflation to fall. From the negative side, policy is being tightened<br/>and growth will slow (but remain very high). Stricter control on credit growth may<br/>postpone or slow some other tightening policies, but is unlikely to serve as full<br/>substitute. We expect China to continue raising interest rates and allow a faster<br/>appreciation of the renminbi.</p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-29 19:34:44编辑过]