汇率的价格服从GARCH(1,1)-t分布，要预测未来252天的价格走势，运行结果是如下，请问我下面的代码哪儿有问题？论文需要，时间紧迫，请高手赐教，万分感谢！

'The distribution of eu series

!N=10000

workfile simus5 u 1 10000

series r

series w

series z

scalar sum4=0

for !i=1 to 10000

smpl 1 252

scalar sum1=0.0000618032

scalar sum2=0

scalar sum3=log(1.045)

series e=@rtdist(7.526)

e(1)=0

series u

u(1)=0

series h

h(1)=0.0000618032

series ln

ln(1)=log(1.045)

for !counter=1 to 252

u( !counter)=sum2

h( !counter)=sum1

ln( !coumter)=sum3

sum1=0.000000642+0.054181*u( !counter)*u( !counter)+0.935995*h( !counter)

sum2=e( !counter)*(sum1)^0.5

sum3=0.999030*ln( !counter)+u( !counter)

if sum3<log(1.0351) or sum3=log(1.0351)then r=0.0861 else r=0

endif

next

if @min(r)=0.0861 then

w(!i)=1

else w(!i)=0

endif

sum4=sum4+w(!i)

z(!i)=sum4

next

show z