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文件名:  188646.pdf
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<p><strong>Abstract</strong><br/>Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality<br/>relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia,<br/>Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After<br/>reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the<br/>VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We<br/>found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the<br/>panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random<br/>effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data<br/>causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through<br/>exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results<br/>indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis.<br/>Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.</p><p><br/># 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.<br/>JEL classification : C33; C32; F43; F21; O11</p><p><br/><strong>Keywords</strong>: FDI, exports, and GDP; Panel data causality analysis; Granger causality analysis; Economic development;<br/>East and Southeast Asia</p><br/>


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