<p><br/></p><p><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" style="WIDTH: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td class="a36green" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 20px;">Global Weekly Economic Monitor</td></tr><tr><td class="a18green" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td class="a18green" colspan="2" height="21" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;">When push comes to shove</td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="28" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;"><b>With credit stresses mounting, we expect<br/>continued strong actions by US policymakers.<br/></b></td></tr><tr><td class="a18green" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px;"></td></tr><tr><td class="publicationslink" colspan="2" height="29" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"></td></tr><!--Element not supported - Type: 8 Name: #comment--><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"></td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">GLOBAL LETTER</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Profusion of confusion</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">Financial markets seem to have gotten terribly complicated - or have they?</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">UNITED STATES</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">When push comes to shove</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">Expect policy makers to respond aggressively to signs of further distress.</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">EUROPE</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="17" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Materialising risks</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">With growth set to slow more sharply, we see the ECB cutting to 3&frac14;% by year-end. </p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="16" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">JAPAN</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Trying times</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">The first half of this year could prove to be a watershed for the economy.</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="17" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">ASIA EX-JAPAN</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Forecast revisions: Growth down, inflation up</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">We expect central banks to focus more on slowing growth than rising inflation.</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">EMERGING MARKETS</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="26" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Out of energy</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">Recent fast growth plus poor regulation make for vulnerability to external shocks. </p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;"><p style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1px solid;">COMMODITIES</p></td></tr><tr><td class="pubheading" colspan="2" height="26" style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold;">Contango calling</td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px;"><p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 140%;">Approaching heavy refinery maintenance and softening fundamentals suggest so. </p></td></tr><tr><td class="a12black" colspan="2" style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 20px; FONT-STYLE: italic;">For analyst certifications and important disclosures, please refer to the documents contained within this email.</td></tr></tbody></table></p>