<p></p><p>Contents</p><p>Foreword xi<br/>Acknowledgments xiii<br/>Abbreviations xv<br/>Overview 1<br/>Technological achievement and diffusion in developing countries 2<br/>Some policy directions 13<br/>Note 15<br/>References 15<br/>Chapter 1 Prospects for Developing Countries 17<br/>Growth outlook 17<br/>Risks 18<br/>Financial markets: Needed correction or major disruption? 18<br/>Global growth 21<br/>World trade 33<br/>Inflation and commodity markets 36<br/>Risks and uncertainties: Danger of a banking crisis and a U.S. recession 41<br/>Long-term prospects and poverty forecasts 43<br/>Notes 48<br/>References 49<br/>Chapter 2 Technology and Technological Diffusion in Developing Countries 51<br/>The role of technology in development 53<br/>Measuring technology in developing countries 58<br/>Evaluating overall technological progress 78<br/>Technological diffusion over the long term 87<br/>Conclusion 92<br/>Technical Annex: Construction of the summary indexes 92<br/>Notes 99<br/>References 101<br/>v<br/>Contents<br/>Chapter 3 Determinants of Technological Progress: Recent Trends and Prospects 105<br/>Drivers of technological progress: A framework 107<br/>External transmission channels 109<br/>Nurturing technological adaptive capacity 127<br/>Conclusion 150<br/>Notes 153<br/>References 156<br/>Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects 165<br/>East Asia and the Pacific 165<br/>Europe and Central Asia 170<br/>Latin America and the Caribbean 176<br/>Middle East and North Africa 184<br/>South Asia 189<br/>Sub-Saharan Africa 193<br/>Figures<br/>1 Robust growth among developing countries should cushion the developed country<br/>slowdown 2<br/>2 Scientific innovation and invention is almost exclusively a high-income activity 3<br/>3 Technological achievement: Converging, but the gap remains large 4<br/>4 The penetration of older and more recent technologies depends on more<br/>than income 5<br/>5 Technological achievement tends to level off at different income levels in different<br/>regions 6<br/>6 Most technologies fail to penetrate deeply into developing economies 7<br/>7 The urban–rural gap in telephone access in India is huge 7<br/>8 Domestic absorptive capacity both conditions and attracts external flows 8<br/>9 Developing countries’ trade in technology goods has risen 10<br/>10 Macroeconomic stability has improved since the early 1990s 11<br/>11 Literacy rates have increased in all regions 12<br/>12 Developing regions have much poorer governance than do OECD countries 13<br/>1.1 The perceived riskiness of high-yield corporate bonds increased more than that<br/>of emerging market bonds 19<br/>1.2 Emerging market asset sell-off more severe than during earlier periods of market<br/>turbulence 19<br/>1.3 Global equity markets fall, then recover led by emerging markets 20<br/>1.4 A step-down in growth in 2008 21<br/>1.5 Volatile patterns of growth among OECD countries 23<br/>1.6 Tighter credit and weak housing yield slower U.S. growth 23<br/>1.7 Robust growth in developing country industrial production 24<br/>1.8 Developing growth retains strong momentum during the first half of 2007... 26<br/>1.9 ...with growth moderating through 2009 26<br/>1.10 East Asia now accounts for one-quarter of China’s imports 27<br/>1.11 External positions vary widely across Europe and Central Asia 27<br/>1.12 Growth eases in 2007 for the Latin America and Caribbean region 28<br/>C O N T E N T S<br/>vi<br/>1.13 Continued oil revenue gains support growth among Middle East and North Africa oil<br/>exporters 30<br/>1.14 South Asia growth is slowing as the Indian rupee appreciates 32<br/>1.15 Oil exporters drive 2007 growth results for Sub-Saharan Africa 32<br/>1.16 Weak U.S. growth reduces demand for developing country exports 35<br/>1.17 Export opportunities for high-income countries 35<br/>1.18 U.S. current account narrows over 2007 and is likely to continue doing so 36<br/>1.19 Inflationary pressures are rising in the Middle East and North Africa and<br/>Sub-Saharan Africa 37<br/>1.20 Inflation is broadly stable elsewhere, though at high levels 37<br/>1.21 Commodity prices continued gains through 2007 led by metals 38<br/>1.22 Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices sharply affected by China 38<br/>1.23 Growth in the world’s demand for oil slows 39<br/>1.24 OPEC reduces output to support prices 39<br/>1.25 Agricultural prices surge over 2006–07 40<br/>1.26 A rise in food prices, led by a ramp-up of the prices of fats, oils, and grains 40<br/>1.27 Long-term growth, 1980–2030 44<br/>1.28 Declining capital-led growth for developed countries, 2002–30 45<br/>1.29 Sustained high productivity growth for developing countries 45<br/>2.1 Patent activity is rising in middle-income countries 61<br/>2.2 Electrical consumption varies markedly even at similar income levels 63<br/>2.3 Rail and road densities rise with income and population density 65<br/>2.4 Telephone densities are highly correlated with income, but air<br/>transport is not 66<br/>2.5 The incidence of Internet use varies widely across countries 73<br/>2.6 Logistics performance in the world 77<br/>2.7 Distribution of technological achievement by dimension 80<br/>2.8 Increase in summary technological achievement subindexes, 1990s–2000s 82<br/>2.9 Alternative summary indexes of technological achievement 83<br/>2.10 Technological achievement rises with income levels 84<br/>2.11 Comparison of levels of technological achievement, early 1990s and<br/>early 2000s 85<br/>3.1 Domestic absorptive capacity both conditions and attracts external flows 108<br/>3.2 Rising share of high-tech imports 112<br/>3.3 Exports of low-, medium-, and high-technology goods 114<br/>3.4 Share of foreign affiliates in business R&amp;D expenditure 117<br/>3.5 Licensing payments have risen sharply 121<br/>3.6 The brain drain is a severe problem in a number of small countries 123<br/>3.7 Share of Ph.D. students still living in the United States five years<br/>after graduation 124<br/>3.8 High-skilled emigrants are disproportionately represented in the diaspora 124<br/>3.9 Most developing countries have increased their exposure to external<br/>technology 128<br/>3.10 Number of countries in conflict worldwide 129<br/>3.11 Efficiency of contract enforcement 132<br/>3.12 Developing country governance scores relative to OECD average 132<br/>3.13 Regional averages of six governance indicators 133<br/>3.14 Per capita incomes have accelerated in recent years 134<br/>C O N T E N T S<br/>vii<br/>3.15 Except in Sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy is improving 134<br/>3.16 Educational expenditures have risen in some regions 137<br/>3.17 Many developing country students fail to meet literacy standards 138<br/>3.18 Levels of intellectual property protection 146<br/>3.19 Level of and recent changes in technological absorptive capacity 149<br/>A1 East Asian growth moves up in 2007 165<br/>A2 Except for China, inflation is now stabilizing across East Asia 166<br/>A3 Performance improves for East Asian countries other than China 169<br/>A4 Mixed growth outturns across Europe and Central Asia 171<br/>A5 External positions vary widely across Europe and Central Asia 171<br/>A6 Growth in Europe and Central Asia eases into 2009 173<br/>A7 Growth outturns were mixed across Latin America in 2007 176<br/>A8 Latin American inflation eases over the last 15 years 177<br/>A9 Latin America and the Caribbean sovereign bond spreads decline, then<br/>increase again 177<br/>A10 Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean eases into 2009 179<br/>A11 Financial test: Credit 183<br/>A12 Exchange rate policy dilemmas? 183<br/>A13 Export product (value) concentration is increasing 183<br/>A14 Export market (value) concentration is falling 184<br/>A15 Growth in Middle East and North Africa picks up 184<br/>A16 Hydrocarbon exports continue to rise on higher prices, modest volume gains 186<br/>A17 Tourism and remittances offset widening trade deficits for Maghreb and<br/>Mashreq countries 187<br/>A18 Middle East and North Africa equities rebound from the mid-2007 slump 189<br/>A19 South Asian economies ease into 2007 190<br/>A20 Monetary policy is tightened in response to a buildup in inflation 190<br/>A21 Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated markedly. . . 194<br/>A22 . . . reaching a 35-year high in oil-exporting countries . . . 198<br/>A23 . . . and a 10-year high in oil-importing countries 199<br/>A24 Contributions of investment and consumption have increased 199<br/>Tables<br/>1.1 Gross capital flows to developing countries, 2005–07 20<br/>1.2 The global outlook in summary, 2005–09 22<br/>1.3 Recent economic indicators, developing regions, 2005–07 25<br/>1.4 Developments and prospects for world trade and payments 34<br/>1.5 Poverty in developing countries by region, selected years 46<br/>2.1 Disparity among TFP levels remains wide 54<br/>2.2 Scientific and innovative outputs 61<br/>2.3 Indicators of the diffusion of older technologies 64<br/>2.4 Affordability of fixed-line phones falls rapidly with lower incomes 67<br/>2.5 Immunization rates lag significantly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa 68<br/>2.6 Diffusion of both water and sanitation technology is low in rural areas 69<br/>2.7 Diffusion of recent technologies 72<br/>2.8 Share of high-tech products in total exports 73<br/>2.9 The quality of logistics services in 2005 varies by income 77<br/>C O N T E N T S<br/>viii<br/>2.10 Indicators included in summary indexes of technological achievement 79<br/>2.11 Technological achievement in developing countries relative to that in high-income<br/>countries 81<br/>2.12 Increase in technological achievement in developing countries relative to that in<br/>high-income countries 81<br/>2.13 Overall technological progress in absolute and relative terms 86<br/>2.14 Successful diffusion has accelerated 88<br/>2.15 The pace at which technology diffuses has picked up among successful adaptors 89<br/>2.16 Slow diffusion means that many developing countries never reach the 25 or 50 percent<br/>threshold 90<br/>A2.1 Indicators used to calculate the summary indexes and overall index related to<br/>technological achievement 95<br/>A2.2 Indicators used to calculate the summary indexes and overall index of technological<br/>absorptive capacity 96<br/>A2.3 Share of total variance explained by principal components, technological achievement<br/>index 96<br/>A2.4 Share of total variance explained by principal components, technological absorptive<br/>capacity index 96<br/>A2.5 Share of total variance explained by principal components for each subgroup of<br/>indicators 97<br/>A2.6 Factor loadings and variable weights for technological achievement<br/>subgroups 98<br/>A2.7 Factor loadings and variable weights for technological absorptive capacity<br/>subgroups 98<br/>A2.8 Share of total variance explained by main principal components of<br/>technological achievement and technological absorptive capacity<br/>using the sub-indexes 99<br/>A2.9 Factor loadings and variable weights obtained from second-stage principal<br/>components analysis (2000–03) 99<br/>3.1 Trade in technology goods has increased in developing countries 111<br/>3.2 Foreign direct investment as a percent of GDP 116<br/>3.3 Foreign direct investment as a percent of fixed capital formation 116<br/>3.4 Selected purchases of high-tech firms by companies in developing countries,<br/>early 2000s 121<br/>3.5 Increases in exposure to external technologies index, 1990s to 2000s 129<br/>3.6 Macroeconomic stability has improved in developing countries 130<br/>3.7 The regulatory burden is heavier in developing countries than in the OECD 131<br/>3.8 Educational attainment indicators 135<br/>3.9 Relatively high youth literacy rates 136<br/>3.10 Weak financial intermediation hinders technology in developing countries 139<br/>3.11 R&amp;D intensities have increased 141<br/>3.12 Private-public sector R&amp;D 141<br/>A1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary 166<br/>A2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts 168<br/>A3 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary 170<br/>A4 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts 174<br/>A5 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary 179<br/>A6 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts 180<br/>C O N T E N T S<br/>ix<br/>A7 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary 185<br/>A8 Middle East and North Africa country forecasts 188<br/>A9 South Asia forecast summary 192<br/>A10 South Asia country forecasts 192<br/>A11 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary 194<br/>A12 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts 195<br/>Boxes<br/>1 Summary of empirical results 14<br/>1.1 Developing country exports in the wake of the removal of barriers to<br/>Chinese exports 31<br/>1.2 Biofuels 41<br/>1.3 Policy responses to rising food prices 42<br/>2.1 Technology can contribute to welfare without affecting measures of short-term<br/>output 55<br/>2.2 Technological innovation may spur further innovation in upstream and downstream<br/>activities 56<br/>2.3 Promoting appropriate technologies in Rwanda 57<br/>2.4 Shortcomings of available measures of technological achievement 60<br/>2.5 Deepwater petroleum technology in Brazil 62<br/>2.6 The green revolution 68<br/>2.7 Technology and growth in Latin America’s natural resource–based economies 71<br/>2.8 Innovative use of communications technology is improving financial access for<br/>the poor 75<br/>2.9 The technological divide within India 91<br/>3.1 Technology imports: Different paths for different countries 113<br/>3.2 European call centers in the Maghreb have inspired local entrepreneurs and prompted<br/>a specialization in high-value-added services 118<br/>3.3 South African investment in Zambia’s retail sector has improved the quality of local<br/>produce and farmers’ earnings 118<br/>3.4 Wal-Mart’s entry in Mexico boosted the Mexican soaps, detergents, and surfactants<br/>industry 119<br/>3.5 Technological transfers through the diaspora and return migrants:<br/>Some examples 125<br/>3.6 Principal market failures impeding technological progress in developing<br/>countries 143<br/>3.7 Government sponsored innovation: Brazilian biofuels 144<br/>3.8 A successful government program of technological development and innovation<br/>financing in the Republic of Korea 145<br/>3.9 Technology in 2020 152</p>

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