<p></p><p><strong>Asia Pacific Equity Research</strong></p><p><strong>China Property Update<br/>Aftershocks for the Chengdu market</strong></p><p><strong>发表机构：JPMorgan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 发表时间：11 June 2008</strong></p><p><strong>格式：PDF&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 页码：13</strong><br/></p><p>Getting more conservative on the Chengdu property market:<br/>Judging from the experience of previous earthquakes, we expect<br/>the Chengdu property market to come under pressure in the near<br/>to medium term and transaction volume to stay low for the next 1-<br/>2 quarters. We are assuming a 10% price drop in Chengdu in the<br/>next 6-9 months, and cut our sales volume assumption for FY08<br/>by up to 50% in our models.<br/>• Impact is limited for most developers: Barring CR Land and<br/>C C Land, we revise down our earnings estimates by only 0-6.2%<br/>for FY08, and by 0-5.9% for FY09. Our estimated impact on<br/>NAV is also relatively subdued with downward revisions ranging<br/>from 0% to 4.4%. But the impact on C C Land is more significant,<br/>with a 16% cut to FY09E earnings and further downside risk. CR<br/>Land has higher Chengdu exposure than do peers, but the impact<br/>is more contained with its investment property portfolio.<br/>• We prefer developers with limited Chengdu exposure for the<br/>time being: Although we expect the adverse impact to gradually<br/>fade, the overhang is unlikely to be removed in the near to<br/>medium term. Two of our top picks, Shui On Land and R&amp;F, have<br/>limited or no exposure to Chengdu. Hence, they remain our<br/>favorites in the China property sector.</p>