<p>Table of Contents<br/>I. Introduction to the Sixth Edition 1<br/>II. Economic Data—Their Special Quirks 2-9<br/>Revisions: Why They Occur; How to Deal With Them 2<br/>A Primer on Seasonal Adjustment 3<br/>Exhibit A: Seasonal Factors for Housing Have Moderated 5<br/>Exhibit B: Retail Sales Correlated With Heating Days 6<br/>Growth Rates—Sequential versus Year-to-Year Change 8<br/>Exhibit C: How Sequential Growth Rates Affect Annual Averages 9<br/>III. Which Economic Data Have the Biggest Impact<br/>on Financial Asset Prices? 10-14<br/>Exhibit A: Equity Market Movers 12<br/>Exhibit B: Fixed-Income Market Movers 13<br/>Exhibit C: Exchange Rate Movers 14<br/>IV. GS Proprietary Economic Indexes 15-24<br/>The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (GSFCISM) 15<br/>Exhibit A: Lots of Ways to Move the GSFCISM 100 Basis Points 17<br/>The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) 18<br/>Exhibit B: The GSAI and GDP Growth—Reasonably Correlated 20<br/>Exhibit C: The GSAI vs. ISM Mfg—Correlated but Noisier 20<br/>The Goldman Sachs Surprise Index (GSSI) 21<br/>Exhibit D: GSSI Components—Payrolls, GDP, ISM Top the List 22<br/>Exhibit E: The GSSI Correlates Well With 2-Year Yields 23<br/>V. GS US Economic Publications and Forecasts 25-26<br/>Publications 25<br/>Forecasts 26<br/>VI. National Output and Income 27-32<br/>Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 27<br/>Personal Income 29<br/>Corporate Profits 30<br/>Exhibit A: From NIPA Profits to S&amp;P 500 Earnings Per Share 32<br/>Understanding US Economic Statistics February 2008<br/>VII. Sectoral Production, Orders, and Inventories 33-48<br/>ISM Report on Business—Manufacturing 33<br/>ISM Report on Business—Nonmanufacturing 34<br/>ISM Semiannual Reports 35<br/>Chicago Business BarometerTM 36<br/>Federal Reserve Surveys of Business Conditions 36<br/>Exhibit A: A Cook’s Tour of Regional Fed Surveys 37<br/>Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 38<br/>Empire State Manufacturing Survey 38<br/>Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Survey 39<br/>Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Survey 40<br/>Current Economic Conditions (“Beige Book”) 40<br/>NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 41<br/>Durable Goods Orders (Advance Report) 42<br/>Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 43<br/>Industrial Production 44<br/>Capacity Utilization 45<br/>Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 46<br/>Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators 47<br/>VIII. Consumer Spending and Confidence 49-58<br/>Retail Sales 49<br/>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 51<br/>Unit Auto and Truck Sales 52<br/>ICSC/UBS Warburg Retail Sales Index 52<br/>Johnson Redbook Report 53<br/>Goldman Sachs Retail Index (GSRI) 54<br/>Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) 54<br/>Consumer Sentiment (Reuters/University of Michigan) 55<br/>ABC News Consumer Comfort Index 57<br/>Other Measures of Consumer/Investor Confidence 57<br/>IX. Housing and Construction 58-67<br/>Housing Starts and Building Permits 58<br/>New Single-Family Home Sales 59<br/>Existing Home Sales 60<br/>Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) 61<br/>Construction Spending 62<br/>Housing Market Index 63<br/>Mortgage Applications Indexes 64<br/>IX. Housing and Construction (continued)<br/>Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures 65<br/>OFHEO Home Price Index 65<br/>S&amp;P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes 66<br/>Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Rate 67<br/>X. Foreign Trade and International Capital Flows 68-71<br/>International Trade Balance 68<br/>Current Account Balance 69<br/>Treasury International Capital System (TICS) 70<br/>XI. Employment 72-80<br/>The Employment Situation 72<br/>ADP National Employment Report 75<br/>Unemployment Insurance Claims 76<br/>Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 77<br/>Challenger, Gray and Christmas Layoff Announcements 78<br/>Help-Wanted Advertising Index 78<br/>Monster Employment Index 79<br/>Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 80<br/>Business Employment Dynamics (BED) 80<br/>XII. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 81-94<br/>Consumer Price Index (CPI) 81<br/>Exhibit A: CPI Relative Importance Weights 82<br/>PCE Price Indexes 84<br/>Exhibit B: CPI vs. PCE Price Indexes 85<br/>GDP-Based Price Indexes 86<br/>Employment Cost Index (ECI) 87<br/>Productivity and Costs 88<br/>Producer Price Index (PPI) 89<br/>Exhibit C: PPI Finished Goods Relative Importance Weights 90<br/>Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&amp;P GSCITM) 91<br/>Exhibit D: S&amp;P GSCITM Components and Dollar Weights 92<br/>Reuters/Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Indexes 92<br/>Import and Export Prices 93<br/>XIII. Monetary and Financial Data 95-101<br/>Monetary Aggregates 95<br/>Monetary Base 96<br/>Senior Loan Officers’ Survey 97<br/>Flow of Funds 98<br/>Consumer Credit 99<br/>Household Debt and Financial Obligations Ratios 100<br/>XIV. Federal Reserve Policy 102-110<br/>Federal Open Market Committee 102<br/>FOMC Policy Statements 102<br/>FOMC Minutes and Transcripts 103<br/>Monetary Policy Testimony and FOMC Forecasts 104<br/>Open Market Operations 105<br/>Discount Rate 107<br/>Term Auction Facility (TAF) 108<br/>Reserve Requirements 110<br/>XV. Federal Government Finances 111-115<br/>Federal Budget Balance 111<br/>US Treasury Borrowing Schedule 111<br/>Exhibit A: Treasury Securities Auction Cycle 112<br/>Federal Debt Limit 113<br/>Auction Techniques 114<br/>Index 116-121</p><p></p><p>[UseMoney=５]&nbsp;</p><br/><br/>[/UseMoney]

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