免费分享 Global Focus – Q4-2017 Is this as good as it gets? (180 pages)-Standard Chartered Bank


Table of contents
Global overview 3
Real GDP growth, 2017 forecasts (%) 4
Is this as good as it gets? 5
Geopolitical economics 10
The threat of extremism in Southeast Asia 11
Economies – Asia 15
Asia – Watching for dovish surprises 16
Asia – Top charts 18
Asia – Macro trackers 19
Australia – Fewer worries 21
Bangladesh – Steady as she goes 23
China – Get the party started 25
Hong Kong – Riding the tailwinds 27
India – Coping with disruptive policy changes 29
Indonesia – Steady growth 31
Japan – Robust growth, modest inflation 33
Malaysia – Delivering a growth rebound 35
Myanmar – Growth potential vs stability 37
Nepal – Politics to dominate in Q4 38
New Zealand – Still accommodative 39
Pakistan – Mind the gap 41
Philippines – Good, but could be better 43
Singapore – Benefiting from external support 45
South Korea – Threats and opportunities 47
Sri Lanka – Improving macro fundamentals 49
Taiwan – A temporary soft patch 51
Thailand – Low political risk is key 53
Vietnam – We expect stronger growth in H2 55
Economies – Middle East and North Africa 57
MENA – Grappling with the new normal 58
MENA – Top charts 61
Bahrain – Deficits and debt 62
Egypt – A marathon, not a sprint 64
Iraq – Tackling challenges on various fronts 66
Jordan – Cautious optimism 68
Kuwait – Easier said than done 70
Lebanon – One step forward, two steps back 72
Oman – Surging public debt 74
Qatar – Adjusting to new realities 76
Saudi Arabia – Bumps in the road 78
Turkey – Fiscal stimulus supports growth 80
UAE – Rough edges 82
Economies – Africa 84
Africa – Not yet out of the Woods 85
Africa – Top charts 88
Angola – The new man in charge 89
Botswana – Losing steam 91
Cameroon – Holding the line 93
Côte d’Ivoire – It’s gonna be okay 95
Gabon – Head above water 97
The Gambia – Picking up 99
Ghana – IMF programme extension is positive 101
Kenya – Election re-run 103
Mauritius – On unsteady ground 105
Mozambique – A bridge too far 107
Namibia – Austerity hits 109
Nigeria – Emergence from recession disappoints 111
Senegal – A job half done 113
Sierra Leone – Marching on 115
South Africa – The ‘make or break’ quarter 117
Tanzania – Still below trend 119
Uganda – Tackling past imbalances 121
Zambia – Still waiting for the IMF 123
Economies – Europe 125
Europe – Top charts 126
Euro area – Changing policy 127
Switzerland – Moderate growth 129
UK – Negotiating the transition 131
Czech Republic – More tightening coming 133
Hungary – Buoyant growth 135
Poland – Still strong 137
Russia – Uneasy relations 139
Economies – Americas 141
US and Canada – Top charts 142
Latin America – Top charts 143
US – Sustained momentum 144
Canada – Boomtown 146
Brazil – Green shoots, despite fiscal setbacks 148
Mexico – There could be trouble ahead 150
Strategy outlook 152
Another brick in the wall 153
Forecasts and reference tables 163
Forecasts – Economies 164
Forecasts – FX 165
Forecasts – GDP 166
Forecasts – Rates 167
Forecasts – Commodities 168
Forecasts – Long-term GDP and inflation 169
Forecasts – Selected interbank rates by tenor 171
Reference tables – Asia 172
Reference tables – MENA 173
Reference tables – Africa 174
Reference tables – Euro area and UK 175
Reference tables – Americas 176