<p>非常抱歉不知道为什么不能下载，楼主已经把大家的钱退给大家了，我刚刚修改了一下。部分同志已经发到你们邮箱了，其他的我就暂时不发了。修改后还是不能下载，所以我取消收费，另外刚刚看到大门口好像有兄弟在昨天把我的那个文件发出来了，我把地址贴一下，大家可以参考。给大家带来不便，刚刚得到消息，公司取从上周5取消了网络上传功能，没办法了，以后只好晚上在家发帖了。<a href="http://tel.pinggu.org/bbs/b90i381898.html">http://tel.pinggu.org/bbs/b90i381898.html</a></p><p><a href="mailto:shangyufei@Highlights">Highlights</a> of this Issue<br/>The Investment Clock<br/>ML’s Investment Clock is an intuitive way of relating asset rotation and sector<br/>strategy to the economic cycle. In this report we back-test the theory using<br/>more than thirty years of data. We find that, while every cycle has unique<br/>aspects, there are clear similarities that can help investors to make money.<br/>Methodology and Results<br/>The Investment Clock model splits the economic cycle into four phases<br/>depending on the direction of growth relative to trend and the direction of<br/>inflation (Table 1). We use OECD “output gap” estimates and CPI inflation<br/>data to identify the historic phases in the U.S. since 1973. Then we calculate<br/>the average asset and sector returns for each phase, testing our results for<br/>statistical significance. We confirm that Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and<br/>Cash outperform in turn as the cycle progresses. We also find a very useful<br/>read-across to equity sector strategy and to the shape of the yield curve. See<br/>the diagram on the next page for a summary of the main results.<br/>Economic Cycle Analysis is Key<br/>We are not testing a real-time, quantitative trading rule. Rather, we are<br/>showing that a correct macro view ought to pay off in a particular way. It is<br/>striking how consistent the results are given that we pay no explicit attention<br/>to valuation, a factor often held to be of utmost importance. Economic cycle<br/>analysis, including an assessment of the aims and effectiveness of policymakers,<br/>will form the core of our tactical asset allocation work.<br/>Based on this methodology, we still favour global “Overheat” plays:<br/>commodities, industrial stocks, Asian currencies, Japan and the emerging<br/>markets. We would underweight Government bonds, financials, consumer<br/>discretionary stocks and the U.S. dollar. See pages 17-20 for details.</p>

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