<P>key summary</P>
<P>1.The intensification of the financial crisis has<BR>pushed economic growth off the cliff.<BR>2.&nbsp;We are now forecasting US growth of -1.6%<BR>next year, eurozone at about -1% and Japanese<BR>at -0.9%. Global growth is projected at a bit<BR>above 1% – qualifying as a global recession.<BR>3.Inflationary forces are fading. Deflation will<BR>be the worry in the future, especially in the US.<BR>4.&nbsp;We expect the Fed funds rate to be cut to<BR>0.5%, in December. The BoJ will stay pat at 0.3%<BR>but we expect the BoE to cut to 1% by February<BR>with the ECB reaching the same mark mid-year.<BR>5.There will be a deluge of bad news in<BR>coming months. Already-low bond yields can<BR>fall further.<BR>6.The market likely to see the most bond yield<BR>action is Europe. We expect a big steepening in<BR>the eurozone curve and a substantial<BR>outperformance relative to the US.<BR>7.We continue to favour the USD over the<BR>EUR, but we like the JPY even more.</P><BR>
<P align=right><FONT color=#000066>[此贴子已经被作者于2008-12-2 10:13:34编辑过]</FONT></P><br>wesker1999
&nbsp;金钱&nbsp;+20
&nbsp;奖励&nbsp;2008-12-2 11:02:25