January ’09
Commentary
The year is not over yet as far as
data releases for 2008 go - so it would be premature to close the book on 2008,
no matter how eager we are to move past it.  What will 2009 bring us - more of
the same, or a turn in the national economy?  The seven indicators we have been
tracking over the past 10 months now are all testing new lows or peaks.  The
recession is now officially a year old and we are still by most estimates barely
midway through the downturn.  Unprecedented was a term used liberally this past
year and it perhaps was understating the events that unfolded, particularly over
the last four months.  With the upcoming change in administration, an $800
billion mega-stimulus plan already in the works and ever-more aggressive
monetary policy by the Fed, 2009 will likely be a year of transition, a time to
take stock of the losses and hopefully turn a corner.