<h2>2008年高速公路行业风险分析报告</h2><div id="postmessage_965839" class="t_msgfont">目&nbsp;&nbsp;录<br/>第一章&nbsp;&nbsp;高速公路供需分析及<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%D4%A4%B2%E2">预测</span>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1<br/>第一节&nbsp;&nbsp;高速公路在国民<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%BE%AD%BC%C3">经济</span>中地位变化&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1<br/>一、在国民经济中的地位&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1<br/>二、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%CD%B6%D7%CA">投资</span>额度变化分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 1<br/>第二节 高速公路的供给分析及预测&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 3<br/>一、供给总量及速率分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 3<br/>二、高速公路供给构成分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 4<br/>三、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%D6%D0%B9%FA">中国</span>公路网规划情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5<br/>四、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=2008">2008</span>年重点在建、拟建高速公路项目&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9<br/>第三节 高速公路需求分析及预测&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10<br/>一、公路运输客货运量总体分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10<br/>二、高速公路网平均行驶量增长强劲&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10<br/>三、汽车保有量继续较快增长&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11<br/>第二章 高速公路产业周期与<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%D0%D0%D2%B5">行业</span>竞争分析及预测&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13<br/>第一节&nbsp;&nbsp;高速公路行业的产业周期分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13<br/>一、高速公路的生命周期&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13<br/>二、目前我国高速公路产业的生命周期判断&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14<br/>三、我国高速公路将较长时间处于<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%B7%A2%D5%B9">发展</span>期&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14<br/>第二节 替代行业竞争分析及预测&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 17<br/>一、各种运输方式的综合比较&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 17<br/>二、高速公路的竞争优势及特点&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 17<br/>三、与铁路运输的竞争分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 18<br/>四、运输子行业间竞争的综合评价&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 19<br/>第三节 行业<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%CA%D0%B3%A1">市场</span>内部竞争综合评价&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 22<br/>第三章 高速公路行业投资与效益分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 23<br/>第一节 我国高速公路行业投融资现状&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 23<br/>一、我国高速公路投资主体转变过程&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 23<br/>二、投资规模&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 23<br/>三、高速公路行业投资特点分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 23<br/>四、高速公路建设的投融资方式&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 24<br/>五、投资需求分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 25<br/>第二节 高速公路投资成本分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 26<br/>一、折旧成本分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 26<br/>二、维修养护成本分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 27<br/>三、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%B9%DC%C0%ED">管理</span>成本影响&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 27<br/>四、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%B2%C6%CE%F1">财务</span>成本影响&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 27<br/>第三节 高速公路投资效益分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 28<br/>一、建设成本逐年提高&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 28<br/>二、车流量增长速度下降&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 28<br/>三、收费政策影响&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 29<br/>四、路产收购&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 29<br/>第四章&nbsp;&nbsp;各地区高速公路&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 31<br/>第一节&nbsp;&nbsp;各地区高速公路分布及建设情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 31<br/>一、各地区高速公路的分布情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 31<br/>二、西部高速公路建设步伐加快&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 31<br/>三、东部盛市高速公路建设已具规模&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 32<br/>第二节 东部地区&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 33<br/>一、东部地区高速公路总体状况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 33<br/>二、重点盛市发展规划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 33<br/>第三节 中部地区&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 41<br/>一、中部地区高速公路总体状况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 41<br/>二、重点盛市发展规划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 41<br/>第四节 西部地区&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 43<br/>一、西部地区高速公路总体状况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 43<br/>二、重点省市发展规划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 45<br/>第五章&nbsp;&nbsp;高速公路<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%C6%F3%D2%B5">企业</span>经营成果分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 48<br/>第一节&nbsp;&nbsp;<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%C9%CF%CA%D0">上市</span>公司整体状况分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 48<br/>一、高速公路上市公司总体分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 48<br/>二、行业收入和净利润增幅均高于同期公路客、货周转量增速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 49<br/>三、高速公路行业公司的毛利率稳步上升&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 49<br/>第二节&nbsp;&nbsp;江苏宁沪高速公路股份有限公司&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 51<br/>一、企业概况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 51<br/>二、营运情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 51<br/>三、经营成果及财务分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 52<br/>四、发展<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%D5%BD%C2%D4">战略</span>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 54<br/>第三节&nbsp;&nbsp;皖通高速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 55<br/>一、企业概况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 55<br/>二、经营情况及财务状况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 55<br/>三、发展趋势分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 56<br/>第四节&nbsp;&nbsp;赣粤高速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 58<br/>一、企业概况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 58<br/>二、公司经营及财务状况回顾&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 58<br/>三、公司2008年资金需求、使用计划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 59<br/>第五节&nbsp;&nbsp;现代投资&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 61<br/>一、企业概况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 61<br/>二、财务回顾及分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 61<br/>三、公司2008年经营计划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 62<br/>第六章 2008年高速公路行业授信风险分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 64<br/>第一节 环境风险分析及提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 64<br/>一、<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%BA%EA%B9%DB%BE%AD%BC%C3">宏观经济</span>对行业影响分析及风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 64<br/>二、燃油<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=%BC%DB%B8%F1">价格</span>变化对行业影响分析及风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 64<br/>三、行业政策影响分析及风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 65<br/>四、环保政策影响分析及风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 66<br/>第二节&nbsp;&nbsp;行业市场风险分析及提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 67<br/>一、市场供需风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 67<br/>二、价格风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 68<br/>三、行业竞争分析及风险提示&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 68<br/>第三节 高速公路建设运营风险&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>一、高速公路建设风险&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>二、高速公路营运风险&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>三、通行费水平的限制&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>四、经营时间的限制&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>五、设汁通行能力的限制&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>六、道路养护成本的风险&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 69<br/>七、融资能力的限制&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 70<br/>第七章 2008年高速公路行业信贷建议&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 71<br/>第一节 2008年我国高速公路项目信贷建议&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 71<br/>一、2008年我国高速公路行业总体趋势及信贷建议&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 71<br/>二、不同区域投资信贷机会选择&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 71<br/>三、不同时机投资信贷机会选择&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 72<br/>第二节 典型企业授信机会及建议&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 73<br/>一、现代投资&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 73<br/>二、赣粤高速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 73<br/>三、宁沪高速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 73<br/><br/><br/>附&nbsp;&nbsp;表<br/>表1&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近年来高速公路通车里程增长情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 3<br/>表2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2002年-<span class="t_tag" href="tag.php?name=2007">2007</span>年分地区高速公路通车里程情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5<br/>表3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 重要省份的高速公路“十一五”规划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8<br/>表4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 我国部分省（区）“十一五”工程投资与建设规划&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 9<br/>表5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近几年全国公路里程、客货运量及其变化&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10<br/>表6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2007高速公路网交通量和行驶量&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 10<br/>表7&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 几种运输方式优劣比较&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 17<br/>表8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 主要国家不同运输方式下客运比例&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 17<br/>表9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2007主要高速公路企业成本费用构成情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 26<br/>表10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近年来路产收购情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 30<br/>表11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 东部地区高速公路建设规模&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 33<br/>表12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年广东省高速公路里程及密度变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 34<br/>表13&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年江苏省高速公路里程及密度变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 36<br/>表14&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年河北省高速公路里程及密度变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 37<br/>表15&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年山东省高速公路里程及密度变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 39<br/>表16&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 中部地区高速公路建设规模&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 41<br/>表17&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2005-2007年湖南省高速公路里程变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 42<br/>表18&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 西部地区高速公路建设规模&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 43<br/>表19&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 西部各省份高速公路通车里程情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 43<br/>表20&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近三年各公司经营业绩情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 48<br/>表21&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 公路行业成长和盈利情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 49<br/>表22&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 日均车流量与收费额比较&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 52<br/>表23&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 集团资产情况汇总表&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 53<br/>表24&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 集团经营成果汇总表&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 53<br/>表25&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各路段日均车流量及单车路费收入情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 55<br/>表26&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各路段经营业绩情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 55<br/>表27&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 近5年皖通公司的主要会计数据和财务指标&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 56<br/>表28&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2005-2007年主要会计数据和财务指标统计&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 58<br/>表29&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 主营业务收入情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 59<br/>表30&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 主营业务分地区情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 59<br/>表31&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2004-2006年主要会计数据&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 62<br/>表32&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2004-2006年主要财务指标值&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 62<br/>表33&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2007年公司主营业务经营情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 62<br/>表34&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 对若干车辆使用成本提高的承受能力的分析&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 65<br/><br/><br/>附&nbsp;&nbsp;图<br/>图1&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 我国高速公路通车里程及增长率&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 4<br/>图2&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2007年我国东、中、西部地区高速公路通车里程&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 4<br/>图3&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2002年-2007年各地区高速公里里程变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 5<br/>图4&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; “五纵五横”及“两纵两横”&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 6<br/>图5&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 国家高速公路网布局方案图&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 8<br/>图6&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 公路民用汽车拥有量&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11<br/>图7&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 公路汽车运输拥有量&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11<br/>图8&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 公路载货汽车拥有量&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12<br/>图9&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 公路重卡拥有量&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12<br/>图10&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各种运输方式客运量变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 19<br/>图11&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各种运输方式客运量比重变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 19<br/>图12&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各种运输方式货运量变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 20<br/>图13&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 各种与输方式货运量比重变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 20<br/>图14&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 上市公司行业成本构成&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 26<br/>图15&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 中国主要公路、高速公路分布&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 31<br/>图16&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年广东省高速公路里程&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 34<br/>图17&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年江苏省高速公路里程变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 36<br/>图18&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年河北省高速公路里程变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 38<br/>图19&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2000-2007年山东省高速公路里程变化&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 39<br/>图20&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2005-2007年湖北省高速公路里程变化情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 42<br/>图21&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 四川省调整公路现状示意图&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 46<br/>图22&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 2007年技术等级公路所占比例&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 47<br/>图23&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 高速公路上市公司经营情况&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 48<br/>图24&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 全国公路客、货运量同比增速&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 49<br/>图25&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 宁沪集团02年-06年收入及利润走势&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 52<br/>图26&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 三项指标的增长趋势图&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 56<br/>图27&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 95#无铅汽油07年3月至08年3月价格变化&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 64<br/></div><br/><br/><br/><br/><br/><br>fuguitop
&nbsp;金钱&nbsp;+50
&nbsp;谢谢分享，再接再厉 O(∩_∩)O&nbsp;2009-5-10 13:38:07