<p></p><p>IMF 5月9日出版的刊物，目录如下：</p><p>Contents<br/>Definitions vii<br/>Executive Summary x<br/>I. Overview 1<br/>Why Has Asia Been So Hard Hit? 2<br/>External Shocks Have Rapidly Fed through to Domestic Demand 9<br/>A Long Recovery Ahead 12<br/>What Role for Policy? 22<br/>II. Recessions and Recoveries in Asia: What Can the Past Teach Us about the Present<br/>Recession? 29<br/>Preliminary Considerations 30<br/>Recessions in Asia: How Long and Deep? 32<br/>Past Recoveries: How Vigorous? 35<br/>Policy Responses and Impacts 37<br/>Concluding Remarks 39<br/>Appendix 2.1 40<br/>III. How Vulnerable Is Corporate Asia? 43<br/>How Badly Has the Corporate Sector Been Hit? 44<br/>How Large Are the Default Risks? 45<br/>How Large Are the Likely Default Losses? 50<br/>Why Is Asia’s Corporate Sector Expected to Remain So Resilient? 51<br/>How Badly Will the Banks Be Affected? 53<br/>Stress Testing the Corporate Sector 54<br/>Conclusions 56<br/>Appendix 3.1. Using Vector Autoregressions to Analyze the Transmission of Shocks<br/>across Sectors 56<br/>Appendix 3.2. Micro-Level Evidence on Real Macro-Financial Linkages 57<br/>Appendix 3.3. Computation of Banks’ Expected Losses from Corporate Sector Distress 57<br/>Appendix 3.4. Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets 58<br/>IV. Revisiting Japan’s Lost Decade 59<br/>Background: Stylized Facts from Japan’s Lost Decade 59<br/>Fiscal Policy: Did Stimulus Work? 63<br/>iii<br/>REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC<br/>Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan’s Approach to Credit Easing 68<br/>Financial Sector Policies: Resolving Japan’s Banking Crisis and Fiscal Costs 73<br/>Conclusions 80<br/>References 81<br/>Boxes<br/>1.1 How Did the Crisis Affect Low-Income Countries in Asia? 5<br/>1.2 The Global Financial Crisis and Trade Finance in Asia 10<br/>1.3 Housing Prices: Could Further Declines Threaten Growth? 14<br/>1.4 Financial Conditions in Key Asian Economies 17<br/>1.5 The Case for Fiscal Stimulus 25<br/>3.1 How Is the Economic Downturn Affecting China’s Corporate Sector? 46<br/>4.1 IMF Seminar on Japan-U.S. Parallels: Summary of Proceedings 60<br/>4.2 Japan: Key Financial System Reforms, 1996–2003 75<br/>Tables<br/>1.1 Asia: Real GDP 16<br/>2A.1 Asia: Identification of Previous Recessions since 1980 40<br/>3.1 Selected Asia: Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than<br/>One, by Size, 2007 47<br/>3.2 Asia: Potential Impact on Bank Capital from Corporate Sector Distress 53<br/>3A.1 Summary: Estimation Results 57<br/>4.1 Key Events in Japan’s Banking Crisis 63<br/>4.2 Japan: Major Tax Cuts during the 1990s 65<br/>4.3 Japan: Estimated Multipliers 67<br/>4.4 Summary of Bank Support Measures in Asia 79<br/>Figures<br/>1.1 Asia: 2008Q4 GDP Growth—Actual vs. Predicted 1<br/>1.2 2008Q4 GDP Growth 1<br/>1.3 Asia: Export Exposure to G-2 2<br/>1.4 Emerging Asia Intraregional Exports and United States Non-Oil Imports 2<br/>1.5 Share of Advanced Manufacturing Value-Added in GDP 2<br/>1.6 Share of Advanced Manufacturing Value-Added in GDP and 2008Q4 GDP Growth 3<br/>1.7 Emerging Asia (Excluding China and India): Direction of Exports 3<br/>1.8 China: Imports of Parts and Components 3<br/>1.9 Changes in International Claims of Reporting Banks vis-à-vis Asia 4<br/>1.10 Emerging Asia: External Bond Issuances 4<br/>1.11 Emerging Markets: Stock Market Performance 7<br/>iv<br/>CONTENTS<br/>1.12 Selected Asia: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 8<br/>1.13 Emerging Asia: Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves 8<br/>1.14 Selected Asia: Changes in Growth of Credit to Private Sector and Interest Rates 8<br/>1.15 Selected Asia: Inventories and Shipments 9<br/>1.16 Selected Emerging Asia: Contributions to 2008Q4 GDP Growth 9<br/>1.17 Selected Asia: Real Private Investment in Machinery and Equipment and<br/>Real Residential Investment 12<br/>1.18 Selected Asia: Employment Growth 12<br/>1.19 Selected Asia: Unemployment Rate 12<br/>1.20 Japan, China, and India: Contributions to Growth 13<br/>1.21 Selected Asia: Contributions to Growth 13<br/>1.22 Asia: Output Gap and Potential Output Growth 19<br/>1.23 Asia: Consumer Prices 20<br/>1.24 Asia: Current Account Balance 20<br/>1.25 Emerging Asia: Net Private Capital Flows 20<br/>1.26 Asia: GDP Growth 21<br/>1.27 Asia: Effect on GDP Growth from Weaker Consumption Growth 21<br/>1.28 Foreign Reserves over External Financing Requirements 22<br/>1.29 Selected Emerging Asia: Projected Net Private Capital Flows 22<br/>1.30 Asia: Risk Factors 23<br/>1.31 Asia: Policy Rates 23<br/>1.32 Central Bank Balance Sheet: Total Assets 23<br/>1.33 Discretionary Fiscal Measures, 2009 and 2010 24<br/>1.34 Composition of Fiscal Stimulus Measures, 2009 24<br/>1.35 Real Private Consumption Expenditure 27<br/>2.1 Recessions, Recoveries and Expansions 30<br/>2.2 Recession Timeline since 1980 31<br/>2.3 Asia and United States: Recession Timeline since 1980 31<br/>2.4 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 (Median real level, peak of the recessions=100) 32<br/>2.5 Cumulative Output Loss in Previous Recessions since 1980 32<br/>2.6 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 (Median) 33<br/>2.7 Asia: Credit to Private Sector during Previous Recessions since 1980 33<br/>2.8 Asia by Regional Groups: Cumulative Output Loss during Previous Recessions since 1980 34<br/>2.9 Asia by Type of Export Activity: Real Gross Domestic Product during 2000–01 Recession 34<br/>2.10 Asia: Response of Real Gross Fixed Investment Growth to a Shock to Real Export Growth 34<br/>2.11 Asia: Real Gross Fixed Investment during Previous Recessions since1980 35<br/>2.12 Selected Asia: Real Private Consumption Expenditure during the Asian Crisis 36<br/>2.13 Asia: Real Exports of Goods and Services during Previous Recessions since 1980 36<br/>2.14 Asia: Real Effective Exchange Rate during Previous Recessions since 1980 36<br/>2.15 Asia: Previous Recessions since 1980 by Type of Export Intensity of the Economies 37<br/>2.16 Average Quarterly Growth during Recovery Phase 37<br/>2.17 Asia: Change in Trend GDP Growth during Previous Recessions since 1980 37<br/>2.18 Asia: Nominal Policy Rates during Previous Recessions since 1980 38<br/>2.19 Asia: Fiscal Indicators during Previous Recessions since 1980 38<br/>2.20 Asia: Impact of Policy Actions during Previous Recessions since 1980 39<br/>2.21 Asia: Change in Fiscal Balance in Selected Recessions 39<br/>v<br/>REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC<br/>vi<br/>3.1 Selected Asia: Decline in Industrial Production 44<br/>3.2 Asia: Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One 44<br/>3.3 Selected Asia: Corporate Bankruptcies 45<br/>3.4 Emerging Asia: Stock Market Performance 45<br/>3.5 Asia Excluding Japan: Equity Performance by Sector 45<br/>3.6 Korea: Lending by Size of Companies 47<br/>3.7 Asia: Credit Default Swap Spreads 48<br/>3.8 Asia: One-Year-Ahead Default Probability of Nonfinancial Corporates 48<br/>3.9 Selected Asia: Historical Expected Default Frequency 49<br/>3.10 Asia: Change in Industrial Production—Actual vs. Predicted 49<br/>3.11 Expected Implication of Higher Default Risks on Firm Investment 50<br/>3.12 Selected Asia: Cumulative Impact on Banks’ Default Probabilities from Shock to Corporate<br/>Default Probabilities, after 10 months 50<br/>3.13 Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector—Annual Average Expected Losses One Year Ahead 51<br/>3.14 Asia: Leverage (Debt-to-Equity Ratio) 52<br/>3.15 Asia: Profitability (Return on Assets) 52<br/>3.16 Asia: Liquidity (Quick Ratio) 52<br/>3.17 Asia: Banking Sector—Expected Losses from Corporate Sector Distress One-Year-Ahead 53<br/>3.18 Profit Shock vs. Interest Rate Shock: Share of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One 54<br/>3.19 Profit Shock vs. Interest Rate Shock: Share of Impaired Debt of Firms with Interest<br/>Cover Ratio Less than One 55<br/>3.20 Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One, by Size 55<br/>3.21 Share of Debt of Firms with Interest Cover Ratio Less than One, by Sector 55<br/>4.1 Japan’s Twin Bubbles: Stock Market and Real Estate 62<br/>4.2 Japan: Growth and Unemployment 62<br/>4.3 Japan: Inflation and Output Gap 62<br/>4.4 Japan: “Three Excesses” of Corporate Sector 63<br/>4.5 Japan: Fiscal Situation of the General Government 65<br/>4.6 Japan: GDP Growth and Supplementary Fiscal Stimulus Package 65<br/>4.7 Japan: Structural Balance of the General Government 66<br/>4.8 Japan: Central Government Public Investment 66<br/>4.9 Japan: Real Public Investment 66<br/>4.10 Japan: Financial Surplus of Nonfinancial Corporate Sector 67<br/>4.11 Japan: Share of Central Government Spending 67<br/>4.12 Japan: Fiscal Balance and General Government Debt 68<br/>4.13 Japan: Interest Rates 69<br/>4.14 Japan: Bank Lending 69<br/>4.15 Japan: Credit Spreads 70<br/>4.16 Bank of Japan: Assets and Balance of Banknotes in Circulation 70<br/>4.17 Japan: Monetary Aggregates 71<br/>4.18 Japan Premium 74<br/>4.19 Cumulative Loans Losses of Japanese Banks since 1992 74<br/>4.20 Japan: Nonperforming Loans 77</p><p><br/></p>