<p>Greater China<br/>Economics<br/>Issues in Focus<br/>China Economics: One Country, Three Economies:<br/>Play the Regional Disparity in China<br/>Different Regions in China will likely demonstrate a<br/>pronounced divergence in growth trends during the<br/>global recession, in our view. While the strength of the<br/>authorities’ anti-crisis policy response is determined by<br/>the adverse situation in those regions hardest hit, the<br/>policy response will likely be largely on-discriminative<br/>across regions, reflecting the particular nature of China’s<br/>central-local government relationship.<br/>Hong Kong: Q&amp;A on Monetary Conditions<br/>The stream of capital inflows into the Hong Kong dollar<br/>and the associated interbank liquidity has refueled<br/>discussions about the Hong Kong currency board and<br/>monetary system. In this report, we compile the<br/>commonly asked questions, and our answers to them,<br/>related to Hong Kong’s currency board and monetary<br/>system, the latest developments with respect to liquidity<br/>conditions, and longer term fundamental considerations<br/>for monetary management in Hong Kong amidst the<br/>changing macro and financial landscape.<br/>Hong Kong: Harder Landing in 1Q09, but Stronger<br/>Recovery Ahead<br/>The Hong Kong economy contracted more severely<br/>than expected in 1Q09, by 7.8%YoY (-4.3% QoQ<br/>seasonally adjusted). The economy was hard hit by the<br/>plunge in external trade, but domestic demand actually<br/>fared better than our expectations.<br/>Taiwan: The Surprise Index<br/>We constructed our proprietary Taiwan Macro Surprise<br/>Index (TMSI) by looking at the derivations between the<br/>actual macro data and consensus expectations. The<br/>TMSI helps to gauge the cyclical strength of the<br/>economy and tells us what is “priced in” and what is not,<br/>TSMI shows the continuation of an uptrend. We believe<br/>that sentiment will continue on a more sustainable<br/>recovery track this time.</p><p>China<br/>Economics and Strategy: One Country, Three Economies:<br/>Play the Regional Disparity in China<br/>4<br/>China Economics: Property Sector Recovery is For Real 14<br/>Hong Kong<br/>Fiscal Package - Extending the F09/10 Budget 22<br/>Q&amp;A on Monetary Conditions 25<br/>Harder Landing in 1Q09, but Stronger Recovery Ahead 31<br/>Taiwan<br/>The Surprise Index 35<br/>Record GDP Fall in 1Q; But Worst is Likely Behind 40</p><p><br/></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-11 9:35:52编辑过]