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| 文件名: Williamson The Case for a Basket, Band and Crawl (BBC).pdf | |
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东亚的波幅爬行一篮子制度,The Case for a Basket, Band and Crawl (BBC) Regime for East Asia,by John Williamson,发表于2001。Abstract:According to the IMF, four of the key developing countries of east Asia (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, and Thailand) are independently floating, while Singapore has a managed float, China and Malaysia peg to the dollar, and Hong Kong pegs to the dollar via a currency board. Singapore’s own description of its regime is a basket, band, and crawl (BBC), with undisclosed parameters. The principal regional currency not included in the IMF tabulation, the New Taiwan dollar, floats; most of us would probably want to call its float a managed one, though whether that is the way the IMF would classify it is unknowable. The smaller regional currencies are described as managed floats (Cambodia and Laos), a horizontal band (Vietnam), or pegged to the dollar (Myanmar). It is not clear that the countries with floating currencies are all happy with that choice: in the case of Korea, reserve changes seem bigger than is consistent with a policy of floating as practiced by the industrial countries. In any event, it is clear that if monetary coordination is to be extended beyond the currency swaps agreed at Chiang Mai to cover exchange rate management, then some of the countries of the region are going to have to make a major policy change. The question to be discussed at this conference is whether such a change should be made and, if so, what regime(s) the region should adopt. The question that I have been asked to consider is whether a BBC regime would be a good choice. The paper therefore starts by outlining what such a regime involves. It proceeds to discuss the monetary implications of this exchange rate regime, before turning to a consideration of whether it might be a good
choice for the principal countries of east Asia and of the steps that would be involved in its introduction. |
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