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以下是一家fund firm 的market comment,由于各种原因，在下不能将全文奉上。
One school of thought is that, in the longer-term, the debt service resulting from the current fiscal stimulus can be managed only by monetisation, resulting in unexpectedly high levels of inflation and a weak bond market .Besides, the dollar would be abandoned as the reserve currency of choice. Another is that there is no viable alternative to the current Keynesian stimulus plans, as evidenced by ample historical precedent from the New Deal and the Great Depression. Policy makers will eventually reverse course and tighten policy, but not yet - the recent moves in treasury yields are indicative of a return to more benign economic conditions after the deflation scare of late 2008. But why might all of the ivory tower debate matter for commodity investors?（注：文章前面曾提到凯恩斯主义学者与货币主义学者之间的辩论。）In a variation on the "heads-I-win-and-tails-you-lose" scenario, the conclusions from many seem to be that commodities would do well under either scenario. In the inflationary world, where money supply is increased to service debt then demand should rise for real assets, especially if the dollar loses more of its value. In a New Deal (new version ) world, then the global economy will eventually tend towards normalisation and will be a return to the themes of globalisation and the secular rise of China and other emerging markets. A pause is warranted here. A groundswell of opinion that says markets will go up come what may, should be cause for concern. At this point, we have no highly held conviction about the exact detail of what may occur during the next several years, on the basis that there is still too much latitude for further extraordinary policy intervention. However, we would make the observation that the reality is likely to be somewhere in between the two extremes of economic theory mentioned above. We do not subscribe to the view of a catastrophised future, but nor does it seem appropriate to believe that there will be a return to a more usual environment on the basis that policymakers are going to time everything perfectly in terms of their reversal of policy. Our view of the future, which is positive for the asset class, is of a world where the dollar struggles to retain its value, where inflation is higher than it is today and where many markets are driven by Chinese economic progress. 先说明一下，我是经济学的菜鸟。对于标红色的In a variation on the "heads-I-win-and-tails-you-lose" scenario这一句, 我觉得说的它意思说的是与heads-I-win-and-tails-you-loses（赢了算我的，输了算你的）的情况类似，意思就是不论怎样我都赢，因此许多人认为在凯恩斯主义占优或货币主义占优的境况下，商品市场似乎均可以获得较好的表现，因为variation有个意思是Something slightly different from another of the same type。但我的前辈说此处的意思是：与heads-I-win-and-tails-you-loses（赢了算我的，输了算你的）的情况不同，商品市场在两种情况下似乎均可以表现良好。我觉得variation与different在程度上是有区别的，前者往往通常说的是量变（至少我觉得在这里是），而后者则一般都是有质的区别了。那么，请问各位高手，这句话到底是什么意思呢，是用“类似”妥当呢，还是“不同”更准确，或还是其他的意思或表达？。 |
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