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亚洲金融危机：原因、对策和制度启示，The Asian financial crisis: causes, cures, and systematic implications. Goldstein, M.发表于Washington, D.C. (EUA). 1998. 71页，The turmoil that has rocked Asian foreign-exchange and equity markets since June 1997 and that has spread far afield is the third major currency crisis of the 1990s. Its two predecessors were the crisis in the European Monetary System (EMS) of 1992–93 and the Mexican peso crisis of 1994–95. At the meeting of heads of state of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Vancouver in November 1997, US President Bill Clinton first characterized the Asian crisis as ‘‘a few small glitches in the road’’—a description that has given way to less rosy scenarios as evidence of the depth and breadth of the crisis has accumulated. As shown in tables 1 and 2, currency and equity markets in emerging Asia recorded huge falls—on the order of 30 to 50 percent—in the second half of 1997 (as measured from the end of June, just before the floating of the Thai
baht). Developments during the first four months of 1998 have been mixed: on the positive side, there have been some rebounds in exchange rates in Thailand and South Korea and in equity prices in the Philippines; in the negative column, the downward slide in the Indonesian rupiah has accelerated, and even where currency and equity prices have rebounded, the cumulative decline over the crisis period as a whole remains very large. |
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