Contents
Investment summary ....................................................................................................... 3
Global DRAM: Conditions to improve until 1H10.......................................................... 5
Quick overview—Low supply growth suggests improvement until 1H10............................ 5
Key thought—2010 DRAM conditions fair at first glance, but little room for capex error… 6
Core assumptions regarding DRAM supply-demand picture for 2009-2010 ...................... 6
Global NAND flash: Even better than DRAM ................................................................. 9
Worst phase over—conditions to improve until end-2010 .................................................. 9
Key thoughts on updated global NAND flash supply-demand model............................... 10
Core assumptions regarding NAND flash supply-demand picture for 2009-2010 ............ 11
A couple of big-picture thoughts .................................................................................. 13
Rise in DRAM utilization not an issue for 2H09, as long as demand grows seasonally ... 13
Industry-wide cash-raising activity yet to be an issue....................................................... 15
Share-price considerations........................................................................................... 17
Stock call goes against intuition—buying focus should be on SEC.................................. 17
Company-specific updates
Samsung Electronics (SEC)............................................................................................. 18
Hynix Semiconductor ....................................................................................................... 26