摘要翻译：
当联邦政府不实施遏制政策，而是允许各州实施自己的政策时，新冠肺炎的死亡人数大吗？我们通过对一个由多个国家组成的国家的SIRD流行病学模型的随机扩展来回答这个问题。我们的模型允许州际流动。我们考虑三项政策：口罩授权、居家命令和州际旅行禁令。我们将我们的模型与美国州级新冠肺炎每日死亡人数相吻合，并利用我们的估计来产生各种政策反事实。虽然一些州实施的限制抑制了大量病毒死亡，但我们发现，如果联邦政府早在一些最早的州实施联邦授权，到2020年11月下旬，超过三分之二的美国新冠肺炎死亡是可以预防的。我们的结果量化了联邦政府为遏制流行病而采取的早期行动的好处。
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英文标题：
《Preventing COVID-19 Fatalities: State versus Federal Policies》
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作者：
Jean-Paul Renne and Guillaume Roussellet and Gustavo Schwenkler
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological model for a country composed of multiple states. Our model allows for interstate mobility. We consider three policies: mask mandates, stay-at-home orders, and interstate travel bans. We fit our model to daily U.S. state-level COVID-19 death counts and exploit our estimates to produce various policy counterfactuals. While the restrictions imposed by some states inhibited a significant number of virus deaths, we find that more than two-thirds of U.S. COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented by late November 2020 had the federal government enforced federal mandates as early as some of the earliest states did. Our results quantify the benefits of early actions by a federal government for the containment of a pandemic.
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