摘要翻译：
粮食不安全与几种健康状况的风险增加以及国家慢性病负担增加有关。家庭粮食不安全的主要决定因素是收入和粮食成本。预测显示，2020年家庭可支配收入预计将下降，2021年仅略有上升。物价预计会上涨。因此，未来粮食价格的上涨将是更大的粮食不安全的一个重要驱动因素。结构化专家判断引出，一种成熟的方法，用于量化不确定性，使用专家。2020年7月，每位专家估计了截至2022年4月，在2020年底英国退出欧盟解决方案的三种情况下，十种食品类别价格变化的中位数、第5百分位数和第95百分位数分位数：A：完整的世贸组织条款；B：一个具有适度破坏性的贸易协定（优于世贸组织）；C：破坏性最小的贸易协定。如果按比例合并计算消费价格指数食品篮子成本，则完全世贸组织条件下的食品价格变化中值预计为+17.9%[90%可信区间:+5.2%,+35.1%]；中度破坏性贸易协定:+13.2%[+2.6%,+26.4%]和最小破坏性贸易协定+9.3%[+0.8%,+21.9%]。经历粮食不安全的家庭数量及其严重程度可能会增加，因为预计在英国退出欧盟会议后的几个月里，食品价格中值将大幅上升，而低收入群体的食品支出不太可能增加，并可能受到这里没有考虑的其他因素（如新冠肺炎）的进一步侵蚀。较高的增长比较低的增长更有可能，接近上限，这将带来严重的影响。研究表明，粮食预算低导致饮食越来越差，这表明，由于粮食不安全对饮食敏感疾病的发病率和管理的影响，对保健服务的短期和长期需求都可能增加。
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英文标题：
《Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and
implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert
judgement update》
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作者：
Martine J Barons and Willy Aspinall
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with increased national burden of chronic disease. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Forecasts show household disposable income for 2020 expected to fall and for 2021 to rise only slightly. Prices are forecast to rise. Thus, future increased food prices would be a significant driver of greater food insecurity. Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2020, each expert estimated the median, 5th percentile and 95th percentile quantiles of changes in price to April 2022 for ten food categories under three end-2020 settlement Brexit scenarios: A: full WTO terms; B: a moderately disruptive trade agreement (better than WTO); C: a minimally disruptive trade agreement. When combined in proportions for calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, the median food price change under full WTO terms is expected to be +17.9% [90% credible interval:+5.2%, +35.1%]; with moderately disruptive trade agreement: +13.2% [+2.6%, +26.4%] and with a minimally disruptive trade agreement +9.3% [+0.8%, +21.9%]. The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices in the months after Brexit, whereas low income group spending on food is unlikely to increase, and may be further eroded by other factors not considered here (e.g. COVID-19). Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.
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